SF Downtown Living

2 years & 37 Million in real estate later...

2012-02-01T18:27:00.000-08:00

Hello there. Its been awhile since touching base, but I have an excuse. I was busy working with 37 buyers and sellers over the last 24 months. It was an incredible experience and it allowed me to help a lot of people get the home of their dreams. These 2 years taught me how best to serve my clients and that's why I moved to Climb Real Estate Group and accepted the role of Senior Sales Leader. Its an opportunity to give my people the time and service they deserve and work in a management capacity and provide training and support to our brilliant team. I'm also an ambassador for Climb at industry and public events.

Look out 2012, its going to be a wild ride.

Seattle Dispatch: Investigating A Different Way to Buy & Sell Real Estate

2010-04-05T21:21:00.000-07:00

I love the real estate business. Having worked with buyers and sellers for ten years in San Francisco I better love it.
Over the course of a decade I've seen the market change several times and that has kept me on my toes. The most profound change in since Y2K has been the proliferation of online tools and data available to consumers. Not only do people have the benefit of blogs and MLS access but there are real estate brokerages that eschew bricks and mortar offices altogether. These companies offer what could be called an 'a la carte' approach to buying and selling where the consumer does the research and relies on the expertise of a real estate professional during the most critical moments of the transaction. For buyers that's writing and submitting the offer and for sellers its evaluating those offers. The benefits? Getting a substantial portion of the commission rebated back to you.

I'm in Seattle this week to train for my new job as a Field Agent with Redfin. I'm excited to learn more about this company and how they are changing the real estate business. There will always be a place in the market for traditional brokerage but I wanted to take this opportunity when it presented itself.

Don't worry, though. I'm still the Downtown expert and am plugged in to and reporting on the news and events that pertain to high rise and new construction condominiums in Downtown San Francisco. In the coming weeks I will share with you what I learn about Redfin and how it works.

What a Difference a Year Makes: Artani is Back on the Market

2010-03-22T19:48:00.000-07:00

It was a little over a year ago that the development team over at Artani condominiums (818 Van Ness Avenue) decided to pull the plug on their sales effort. Facing a challenging marketing and financing environment right after the Wall Street meltdown, they believed that the better part of valor would be to rent the units for a year and see how the market shook out.

Here we are a year later and the market has adapted to a new normal. Developments that continued to sell while Artani called it quits had success in moving product, albeit at prices that were lowered by as much as 30%. A lot of those projects are now sold out or very close to it which allows Artani to hit the market as inventory is narrowing and demand is relatively strong.

That leaves one question, how much? Sales Manager Aaron was gracious enough to give me a sneak peak at pricing.
Here's a sampling:

1-bedroom with parking starting at $489K.

1-bedroom 2-bath with den and parking starting at $549K.

2-bedroom 2-bath with parking starting at $699K.

All Artani homes come with dual pane windows, security systems, hardwood floors in the living areas, granite and s/s kitchens with gas viking ranges, fridge, stacked washer/dryer and built-in humidifiers. Units that face south and west get air conditioning and some second and eighth floor homes get large private terraces. HOA's run from the upper $300's to the lower $400's per month.

I imagine there is some wiggle room in the pricing for the 52 homes and given the quality of the finishes and floor plans these will probably sell at a steady pace. It turns out that some things may be worth waiting for after all.

100%, 99% and 50% at the Sales Centers, High Rise 80's Glamour & One Hawthorne Bats its Eyelashes

2010-03-15T17:51:00.000-07:00

Milestones

The Arterra sales center put their last unit into contract about two weeks ago, rendering the Mission Bay development sold out once the remaining ten or so units currently in escrow close. This represents a four year sell out for developer Intracorp's 269 unit property. Construction costs ran just south of $90M USD. Close on their heels, The Infinity is down to nine units in Tower II with list prices starting at $2.7M. Across town in the Mission, 555 Bartlett announced that half of their 58 homes are now in contract after just two weeks of sales. Ladies and Gentlemen, Spring has sprung.

Greed is Good

Crank up the Oingo Boingo and make liberal use of the styling mousse because 80's glamour is now for sale. 611 Washington Street is a mixed use tower built in 1984 with 33 residential units sitting atop class A commercial office space.
Unit 2402 is listed at $3.595M and boasts 2624 square feet and iconic Downtown views. Unfortunately for the 80's purists among you, the kitchens and baths were updated a few years ago and there isn't a hint of glass block or brass to be seen. HOA dues and parking for two DeLorean's runs $2,518 per month.

Voted "Most Flirtatious" Class of 2010

The developer at One Hawthorne is a tease. The first ten units were supposed to have been released already, but developer Jackson Pacific has decided to play it coy. Buyers will have to wait until construction is complete on all 165 units before being able to write a check. ETA is June and methinks there is a wee bit of strategy afoot with both new and resale inventory Downtown shrinking rapidly. Worth the wait? I can take you on a tour to see. Can beggars also be choosers? We'll have to wait until June to find out.

Be Prepared For Your New Developments "Breaking In" Period

2010-03-09T09:11:00.001-08:00

There is a dream a lot of new construction buyers have. It first takes shape in the flawless presentation of the model home with its professionally selected decor and costly upgrades. It continues to thrive with the idea of 'new' being something that is perfect and flawless, fresh off the assembly line like a car or a flat screen TV. The draw of the 'new' is sometimes culturally based and other times just seems like the 'smart' choice. Who wouldn't assume that everything will work effortlessly when there is no wear and tear?

Luckily, new construction condominiums have one year 'fit and finish' warranties that cover the inevitable settlement cracks, shrinkage gaps and the like. But what of the common areas? The parking garage? The building staff?

Just like any collaborative effort, a new development takes time to hit its stride. When you have a new building, new staff and hundreds of new residents all under the same roof things can go south quickly unless homeowners and management are on top of things. Patience is a prerequisite no matter how swanky the development. Even the architect doesn't know exactly how the building and its systems are going to perform until they are subject to daily use and the environment. Window systems sometimes fail, balcony railings 'whistle' in the wind and garage gates close on your trunk because the timer hasn't been adjusted. Frustrating? Yes. Curable? Absolutely.

The dream of a low-maintenance lifestyle is attainable with condominium living. You just have to give the building, its staff and your neighbors time to get with the program. You all had the same dream in that model home after all, didn't you?

Where The Heck Is 555 Bartlett?

2010-03-02T09:35:00.000-08:00

Seven Hills Properties had several choices when deciding on a name for their new 60 unit development at the corner of Mission and Cesar Chavez Streets. The address for the previous building on the lot (a pretty cool Art Moderne paint store) was 3400 Cesar Chavez. Somewhat of a mouth full which doesn't flow off the tongue that well. How about a Mission Street address? Could work, but touting a Mission Street location when the neighborhood itself is still somewhat "gritty" may put potential buyers off. They could have gone with a 'named' development. Perhaps "The Crossroads" in reference to the bustling intersection it sits at. Or maybe "Revolution", a subtle homage to Cesar Chavez himself?

In the end, Seven Hills went with 555 Bartlett, which is the alley-like street that borders the rear of the parcel. It has a nice ring to it I suppose, and at least its not some banal attempt at branding the building to evoke something its not.

I toured the development a few weeks ago and was not expecting a lot given that there is a 24 hour Walgreens in the commercial space below the units, and the transit and traffic heavy locale. Color me surprised by the spacious, well thought out floor plans, upscale finishes and pleasant views of Bernal Hill to the south. With prices starting in the low 400's for 1-bedrooms and BART and 101 blocks away, this development offers great bang for the buck in a neighborhood that is stocked with bars and restaurants.

Sales start this weekend for these surprisingly appealing Mission condominiums. Just be prepared to tell people coming to visit you that although located at the corner of Mission and Cesar Chavez, the address is 555 Bartlett.

"Revolution" would have been so much easier : )

Downtown Inventory Sampler: Ladies & Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

2010-02-23T08:29:00.000-08:00

It was November 10th when we last looked at the sampler. With the holidays behind us and the late winter/early spring bump in inventory and sales, there are some interesting changes to the Downtown sales landscape. Arterra is rumored to be sold out within the week and The Infinity has but 15 units remaining. The impending sellout at the Main and Spear Street complex has motivated some owners to list their homes; and at aggressive prices. Time will tell what the market will bear, but the fact remains that overall inventory is low and buyer interest is high. Off to the races...

The Beacon

Six 1-bedrooms, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 8. Total units: 595.

The Metropolitan

One 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 3. Total units: 342.

Watermark

No resale activity. Total units: 136.

200 Brannan

One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 191.

The Brannan

Four 1-bedrooms, Five 2-bedrooms. Available units: 9. Total units: 339.

The Potrero

One 1-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 155

The Hayes

No resale inventory. Total units: 128

Arterra *

No resale inventory. Total units: 269

The Infinity *

Four 2-bedrooms. Available units: 4. Total units: 650

One Rincon Hill *

Three 1-bedrooms and Six 2-bedrooms. Available units: 9. Total units overall: 376.

* New inventory still available from the developer.

Earthquake Insurance: Expensive? Yes. Necessary...?

2010-02-15T21:15:00.000-08:00

When I'm working with buyers that are new to condominiums, one of the most common questions asked is "What do the HOA dues cover and why are they so expensive ?" Typically dues will pay for water, garbage service, common amenities and fire and hazard insurance. In some buildings, an earthquake insurance premium is also part of the dues. Its easy to guess if earthquake coverage is included without knowing for sure since the monthly assessment for a unit in a building with it can be double the equivalent unit would be without.

For developments that have a large percentage of commercial or retail space as part of the same structure, earthquake coverage is usually mandatory. Like The Beacon with its Safeway, Borders and commercial condominiums or The Four Seasons and St Regis with their hotels on the lower floors under the residential units.

Buildings like Arterra or The Infinity have a choice in the matter. Do you raise dues to cover earthquake insurance, protecting your investment while potentially lowering values by making the units less affordable? Or do you carry on as-is and hope that The Big One won't be so big.

Living in a seismically active area like San Francisco requires the ability to reconcile knowing that the ground beneath us can start to shake at anytime with potential major results. Gauging the value and benefits of earthquake insurance is a very personal decision that involves the instinct to manage risk with the need to preserve value and desirability.

Do you have a question about Downtown real estate? All you need to do is ask.

Must See TV: Blueprint America

2010-02-08T18:31:00.000-08:00

There is a new PBS series airing and its timing couldn't be better. Blueprint America takes an in-depth look at our countries crumbling transit and infrastructure and what's being done to drag our fossil fuel gorging culture into the 21st century. Far from your typical didactic PBS fare, this series explores our checkered transit history (tearing out urban streetcar systems in favor of cars and highways) and current efforts to jump start high-speed rail projects around the country. We hear so much about "transit orientated development" but it doesn't have much resonance unless your a city planner or property developer. This show will change that and show how efficiency and prosperity can go hand in hand.

If you live Downtown, your already transit orientated by nature of being in a city. What's exciting in San Francisco is that construction on our high-speed rail line will begin soon with the impending demolition of the TransBay Terminal. Once clear, the site will be excavated for construction of the "train box" that will sit below the eventual TransBay Tower.

While I'm geeking out on planning things, I should also tell you about an organization called America 2050. From their website:

"A national initiative to meet the infrastructure, economic development and environmental challenges of the nation as we prepare to add about 130 million additional Americans by the year 2050."

By 2035, two million of those Americans will be living in the Bay Area. The Downtown skyline may fill in faster than we thought.

Inventory & Anticipation Rise as the Market Starts to Come Alive in 2010

2010-02-01T19:26:00.000-08:00

I wrote a few week ago about how the real estate market is typically slow up until the Superbowl and then it takes off. Bearing this out is an almost 30% rise in listings since the beginning of the year. A lot of factors will have an impact on the health of the market and its impossible to estimate what that is until we start to see some measurable sales volume.

Some of these factors include the extended and expanded home buyer tax credits, low interest rates, low overall inventory and potential short sales and foreclosures. The most important factor in my opinion? Confidence. How do you feel about your job security? How about the government ? Are things in general getting better, worse or staying the same? The answers to these questions can help people determine if the time is right for them to buy or sell.

There are also those times when none of them can. Someone once told me that the easiest way to make God laugh was to make plans. Sometimes life makes the most carefully laid plans obsolete and this can be positive, negative, or a bit of both. Not just for mere mortals like us, but for the real estate market, too.

I'm confident there won't be too much laughter from above this year.

San Francisco Can Learn Something From Los Angeles.

2010-01-25T22:03:00.000-08:00

This past weekend I went to LA to celebrate my college roommates 40th birthday. He works in the entertainment industry and has quite the outsize personality. The entire weekend consisted of glamorous brunches, shows and dinners at classic Los Angeles locales like The Polo Lounge and newer hot spots like L.A. Live and Voyeur (don't ask).

I had heard about L.A. Live a few years ago when a former colleague was selling condominiums at The Ritz Carlton Residences there, but had never seen it in person. Our Leopard Limo (another LA invention) hurtled toward Downtown and as we pulled up to the main entrance on Olympic Boulevard I was completely floored. Adjacent to Staples Center, L.A. Live is a combination of crass commercialism and performing arts spaces rendered in Blade Runner style. It's the southern California version of Times Square with all the giant neon and LED lighting that one would expect.

It was mobbed, too. Old and young, Angeleno and tourist, black tie and open fly. This was the place to be.

One wonders what it would be like to have a fantastic new 21st century entertainment complex like that here in San Francisco. The truth is that it can't be done. With most vacant land Downtown already spoken for and a stunningly complex and developer unfriendly planning process, we will have to settle for... The Metreon.

Thankfully, we have the views, the bridges, the hills and the bay to console us. I had a great time down south and when I drove over The Bay Bridge back into my favorite city in the world a smile crept over my face. I was home.

One Hawthorne Sales Center Now Open!

2010-01-19T08:48:00.000-08:00

I'll admit that I may be jumping the gun a bit, but its exciting for a real estate geek like myself to lay hands on the 24 different floor plans available at the newly opened One Hawthorne sales center. That's pretty much all you can do at this point, anyway. The building won't be ready for hard hat tours for another three weeks and brochures, virtual reality tours and all the usual sales center accessories have yet to arrive.

What you will find are a delightful sales team, some of whom you will recognize from The Infinity a few blocks east. Since walking through a home is the best way to judge its merits, we will have to make do with what the team is sharing right now about the 165 condominiums. The 24 different layouts range from junior 1-bedrooms through 3-bedroom penthouses and I was pleasantly surprised by the large-ish, well-designed units offering plenty of closets and windows.

Pricing has not been established so we can't judge the relative value, but a few things to keep in mind are that parking is available with about 75% of the homes and that it is valet only. The first phase to hit the market in February will be on the 2nd though 8th floors only of the 25 story tower. A strategy surely meant to determine value on the upper floors but more likely to stymie buyers that want views and light.

This will be the last new tower Downtown for quite some time, so the One Hawthorne team is pretty much guaranteed a lot of traffic to the sales center. Whether or not that traffic results in raining deposit checks remains to be seen but it looks promising.

For expert guidance on this and all other Downtown developments you know who to call.

What's Up? New Developments at New Developments

2010-01-12T08:44:00.000-08:00

January is typically a slow month in real estate. People are busy working on their resolutions (or breaking them). Once the Superbowl has been played, business starts to pick up with homes hitting the MLS and buyers starting to write offers.

Some new developments have gotten a jump on activity for early 2010 and made some fun and/or interesting changes. Lets take a look...

829 Folsom: You say Goodbye and I say Hello.

Sotheby's New Marketing Group has handed over the sales and marketing reigns to The Polaris Group as of the new year.
Since opening in mid-2009 few of these Folsom Street condominiums have gone into contract, perhaps the new blood (and new pricing) will be just the trick. Pay them a visit and say "Hi" to the new team; maybe they will show you one of the killer Penthouses.

Hang out with some hot models at BLU.

Not those kind of models. Although that wouldn't hurt. Anyway, these 16th floor beauties showcase the stunning finishes and views available at what one wag had dubbed "The Millennium Junior". The A plan is especially sweet with no units adjacent and views on three sides. The Ladies of BLU await you (that would be the lovely sales team).

She's a Brick House: Union unveils the brick and timber building!

They call it Union North. It's the "old" portion of Union's new construction/historic rehab combo and you are now allowed to tour and perhaps buy. One of only two developments currently marketing (Esprit Park being the other) that gives you that elusive and desirable combination of new systems and finishes with the beauty and character of vintage brick and timber. Bonus points for the cool neighborhood already stocked with shops, bars and restaurants.

Do you have colleagues, friends or family searching for a San Francisco condominium? Your referrals have been greatly appreciated and I look forward to exceeding expectations again in 2010.

Worlds Tallest Building Opens For Business: Welcome to The Burj Khalifa.

2010-01-04T18:43:00.000-08:00

Yesterday marked the official grand opening of the worlds tallest building in Dubai, the Burj Khalifa. Originally named The Burj Dubai ('Dubai Tower' in Arabic); construction started on September 21, 2004 and was completed October 1, 2009.

"So what?" one may ask. "Dubai has been building high rises like crazy for years". While that is true, I'll let the facts and figures for the highest man-made structure in the world speak for themselves:

Height: 2,684 feet. 1,000 feet taller than the next highest building, Taipei 101 completed in 2004.

Floors: 160.

Cost: $1.5 billion USD or $9 million USD per floor.

Elevators: 57.

Capacity: 25,000 people.

Usable square footage: 5.67 million.

Residential units: 1,044.

Residential square footage: 1.85 million.

Office square footage: 300,000.

How many appliances? Miele manufactured 7,650 for the residential units.

How many toilets and bidets? Duravit made 4,000 for the building.

Observation Deck? Highest in the world on the 124th floor.

So for now, The Burj Khalifa wins the age old "Whose is bigger?" contest.

The unanswered question is how are the condo closings going? With the sales office claiming to have sold 95% of the 1,044 units within eight hours of hitting the market back in 2006, it will be interesting to see how many of these contracts close amid economic uncertainty both in Dubai and abroad. Prices per square foot are reported to have topped out at $2600 USD.

Thinking about selling your 'shaq' and moving up? I'm happy to provide you with a complimentary marketing analysis and opinion of value.

A Toast...

2009-12-21T18:27:00.000-08:00

To my colleagues, clients and friends:

Thank you for indulging me each week when I pick up my virtual pen. I hope you find it entertaining, informative, sometimes zen.

I am grateful for life's blessings and my ability to share and send. In a small way, we learn, we laugh, we mend.

2009 is almost gone, the first decade of the new century at end. Now the wiser, lets welcome 2010!

Cheers!

SOLD! Online Storage Auction Rakes It In; Provides Storage For Rakes.

2009-12-15T09:20:00.000-08:00

The Infinity held the second and final round of deeded storage space auctions last Thursday. Round one of the auction took place November 18th with all units selling. Thursday night represented the last opportunity for Infinity homeowners to bid in the online auction and score a deal on some much needed room to stash bicycles, buggies and boards, both ski and surf.

I have a client who participated unsuccessfully in the first round and would be traveling during the second, so I happily stepped in to be his bidder-by-proxy. Being a very bright and analytical gentlemen, he provided me with a detailed bid strategy which yielded success and what I think to be a respectable value based on the 'comps' as we say in real estate.

That brings me to the most fascinating thing about the auction for me: seeing value assigned to property in real time. It was a small-scale case study of a consumer market in action. Before your eyes you saw demand rise and fall, then rise and fall again. Prices did a similar dance, leveling off for periods, dropping and then shooting up suddenly. I found it terribly interesting to review the post auction data and determine patterns and how well the group did individually and as a whole.

The big question on most peoples minds: Does having storage add value to my home? My answer: Absolutely, but there is no way to determine how much. Try this scenario: Two almost identical Infinity units hit the market at the same time at the same price. One has storage and the other does not, which sells first?

In a challenging market, anything a seller can do to make their home stand out will add value. Whether or not that value translates to more money, a quicker sale or both is up to the market.

Asked and Answered: Does Downtown San Francisco Really Need Another Mall?

2009-12-08T08:49:00.000-08:00

According to the Urban Realty Company, the developer for the proposed CityPlace Mall on Market Street between 5th and 6th, the answer is "Yes". The project has been in the design and review phase for a few years now. If approved in the current iteration, CityPlace will add approximately 250,000 square feet of 'value' based' retail along a dreary stretch of Market Street that most people wouldn't consider strolling down at any time of day or night, retail or not.

In general, I'm a pro-development type of guy but I'm not confident this mall will succeed. With potential tenants being 'value based' (think Ross Stores and the like) and the retail sector suffering, I don't see what value this adds to the neighborhood. Target will open The Metreon soon and additional retail square footage seems superfluous. Maybe I'm short sighted.

Neighborhood residents have the most to gain. Anything that can be done to change the scene along Market Street there can and should move forward. In lieu of a Ross, how about a grocery store that could serve the areas new residents in buildings like SOMAGrand and Argenta ? The typical Safeway occupies about 45,000 square feet so there would still be plenty of room
for designer outlet stores.

In the mean time, I'll see you at The Westfield Center. An excellent example of historic rehabilitation, adaptive and mixed-use development that is home to Spanish designer knock-off value retailer Zara. So there.

Holy Healthcare Batman! $2.6 Billion in Hospital Construction Under Way in SF

2009-12-01T09:33:00.000-08:00

As the national debate on health care rages on, San Francisco's medical institutions have other fish to fry. In order to be in compliance with state seismic safety laws, UCSF Hospitals and San Francisco General Hospital have embarked on ambitious building campaigns. They are building earthquake-safe facilities and providing the City and region with new physical infrastructure that will be perfectly situated to take advantage of the pharmaceutical and bio-tech investment and research happening here.

A quick glance at the action:

UCSF Osher Center for Integrative Medicine. Scheduled for completion in late 2010. The 48,000 square foot facility is located at the corner of Post and Divisadero Streets and its substantial steel frame is already in place. The Osher Center will house research, education and clinical programs and is estimated to an approximately $400 million price tag.

UCSF Mission Bay Children's Hospital. The first phase of a three hospital project, Children's will house 183 beds and is budgeted at $1.6 billion. Site work is under way on the corner of Third and 17th Streets and a complete facility will arrive by 2014. This hospital will allow UCSF to continue being one of the top ranked children's hospitals in the country (currently ranked 7th). Hospitals specializing in cancer and women's care will follow on the same site.

San Francisco General Hospital. After San Francisco voters passed a bond initiative to the tune of $887 million, plans for the new hospital on the current Potrero Avenue campus moved forward. The new and improved 450,000 square foot, 284 bed hospital should be ready for staff and patients in 2015 and will be a welcome improvement over the current hodge-podge of buildings. Many of my doctor friends have told me that if you suffer a traumatic injury and are still conscious, tell the EMT's to take you to General.

With General's construction financed by bonds, UCSF is relying on donations, bequests and grants to fund its construction costs.

Now all we need is a seismically sound Veterinary Hospital for Cat Woman and The Penguin.

Five Things To Be Thankful For This Thanksgiving 2009

2009-11-23T18:45:00.000-08:00

Chances are that if you are reading this you likely have your basic needs as a human being covered. Food, shelter and enough money to have some control of your life and take care of your loved ones. Something to be thankful for, indeed. My list of five things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving could be interpreted as shallow. But lets face it: I'm a real estate agent and I write about real estate, and we are fortunate here in San Francisco as far as that topic is concerned. Don't believe me ? Read on...

1.) Extended and expanded federal home buyer tax credits for 2010.

Its estimated that 40% of new home buyers in 2009 moved forward with their transactions because of the state and federal tax credits that were offered. I don't know what the percentage of buyers in San Francisco is that would make that claim, but increased transaction volume bodes well for the market and boosts confidence on a national, state and local level.

2.) Inventory is down and there's not much in the pipeline.

I've said it before, but it bears repeating: Only one high rise development will open for sales Downtown in 2010. One Hawthorne will add 165 units to Downtown inventory amidst a market that will have absorbed almost all other units.
The Infinity, Arterra, BLU, and One Rincon are all starting to scrape the barrel with approximately 140 units available amongst the four.

3.) Mortgage money is still cheap.

The process of getting a mortgage may be more onerous than it once was, and it certainly takes longer for transactions to close due to a finicky and seemingly arbitrary underwriting process, but interest rates are still REALLY low. All the folks buying in 2009 know that and I'm confident we will have good rates available in the near future.

4.) Low inventory + demand = a more balanced market.

Buyers had it made in '09. If you had good credit and a reasonable down payment the world was your oyster in terms of purchasing a condominium Downtown. Sellers of both new and resale properties got realistic and starting making deals happen that established a new 'normal' for value based on the pros and con's of the property itself and not the dream of quick and easy equity. With inventory drying up, I predict a more balanced market between sellers and buyers than was possible in '09.

5.) You. Are. Here.

I don't want to put down other cities because that would be rude. But let's be real. Whether you own or rent, want to buy or sell, you probably live in San Francisco. It can be a maddening, annoying, frustrating place. Yet at the end of the day we live in a city that people from all over the world come to visit for just a few days and then go back to their dreary 'burgs, 'hams and 'villes. Remember that when you dig into that turkey, tofurkey or whatever else you'll be feasting on this Thursday.

Ye Olde San Francisco: Adaptive Reuse at 25 Hotaling

2009-11-17T14:43:00.001-08:00

The nine units at 25 Hotaling represent a completely different take on how to live Downtown then you will typically see me writing about. Located in Jackson Square, this former warehouse built sometime in the 1850's has been thoughtfully updated into duplex and flat style condominiums. With no on-site parking available and fairly modest square footage, these units are ideal pied a terres for financial district types who want to walk to the office and don't require a full service environment.

My favorite part of the development is the setting: The scale of the neighborhood is true to the mid nineteenth century, human sized streets and wonderful old buildings with heavy Italianate moldings and trims. Without trying to be cliche, it feels like an old European quarter with stylish bars and restaurants nestled among art and design shops.

If you haven't strolled though Jackson Square, I highly recommend it. Its a lot cleaner and fancier than it was in the 1850's and its probably the best place in San Francisco to get a sense of what the city was like when it was still called Yerba Buena.

If you would like to schedule a tour at 25 Hotaling, drop me line. One olde timey whiskey, included.

Downtown Inventory Sampler: What's That Sucking Sound ???

2009-11-10T08:57:00.000-08:00

It was August 25th when we last visited our ten pet developments. Summer was winding down and resale inventory was low, due to a busy summer buying season this year. Properties that did not sell were taken off the market and sellers who had waited to list were preparing to put their properties up for sale for the beginning of the fourth quarter. Typically, the last active time of year for sales before the holidays and winter rain.

The Fall inventory bump materialized as expected and resale absorption was very respectable. The numbers indicate that sellers got more realistic about price and buyers found the confidence to move forward. The difference between then and now ? 200 Brannan had seven active listings on August 25th, today they have one. The Metropolitan had eleven, now six. That sucking sound I referred to above ? That's new and resale inventory being Hoovered away...

The Beacon

One studio, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 8. Total units: 595.

The Metropolitan

Three 1-bedrooms, two 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 6. Total units: 342.

Watermark

No resale activity. Total units: 136.

200 Brannan

One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 191.

The Brannan

One 1-bedroom, Four 2-bedrooms. Available units: 5. Total units: 339.

The Potrero

One studio, One 1-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 155

The Hayes

No resale inventory. Total units: 128

Arterra *

One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 269.

The Infinity *

One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 650.

One Rincon Hill *

Two 1-bedrooms and Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 4. Total units overall: 376.

* New inventory still available from the developer.

The Bay Bridge is Back In Business, Whether You Like it or Not.

2009-11-02T21:21:00.000-08:00

It was like one of those dreams where you recognize the setting, but something isn't normal. I slowly realized that what was missing was the dull roar of the Bay Bridge. Its a unique sound that is a combination of wind noise, tire thuds reverberating off the lower deck pavement to the bottom of the upper deck, and the structural creaks and groans of the 72 year old bridge itself.

The structure went quiet last week after being closed due pieces falling off and striking cars on the upper deck. Luckily, no one was hurt and the bridge reopened yesterday after inspections and repairs. It had not been closed that long since the 1989 earthquake, when it was out of commission for almost a month.

San Francisco has changed a lot since then, and seeing the effects of the closing was fascinating. Downtown parking lots were almost empty and street parking plentiful. Walking along The Embarcadero, one felt like they were in an alternate universe version of San Francisco without the constant aural reminder of thousands of vehicles moving overhead. The neighborhood felt oddly serene for an urban center.

The visual impact was stunning as well. No steady stream of headlights careening westward and no red tail lights retreating east. For those with views of the bridge it was a unique experience to have what is normally the site of constant activity rendered little more than an elaborate water sculpture.

That's all over now and Downtown parking lot owners can breathe a sigh of relief. Albeit one with a little more particulate matter in it.

Looking for a home with Bay Bridge views ? Let the span of my experience help.

53rd Floor Designer Show Homes at One Rincon Hill: Fancy, Frivolous, For Sale!

2009-10-27T09:23:00.000-07:00

If you want to see how a bland builder box can be transformed into a comfortable custom condominium, you should pay a visit to One Rincon Hill and drop 20 clams on a ticket to the "Design Above All" show homes. The designers started with the standard floor plans and finishes in the four units on the 53rd floor and created bespoke interiors for each; tailored to four imaginary clients with different tastes and priorities.

Some designers tweaked the floor plans slightly to improve flow or change the use of a room, while others took it further and painted the kitchen and bath cabinetry and replaced the the standard granite counter tops with a more neutral selection. Like most show homes, these were a bit too crammed with furniture and accessories (with the exception of the Google Guy's 01 stack pad) but did present how one can create a warm and unique environment that feels like a home 600 feet above Rincon Hill.

Although most Downtown dwelling San Franciscans are not going to spend $100,000 on furnishings and custom work, these events are brilliant for picking up decorating ideas and inspiration. My favorite ? The sofa upholstered with cork.

Not to be upstaged, Millennium Tower is hosting "Icons of Design" for the next four weekends, showcasing the work of 25 Bay Area designers on their 52nd floor.

It looks like this high rise living concept is catching on in San Francisco...

Just 60 out of 650 Still Available at The Infinity; Last of The Best Downtown Homes For At Least a Decade.

2009-10-22T12:18:00.000-07:00

The Infinity team held a broker appreciation event in the spectacular unit 41B last night. As we sipped Champagne and nibbled canapes, Carl Shannon of developer Tishman Speyer congratulated the crowd on their astounding success in coming close to selling out one of San Francisco's best developments in the most challenging market in memory.

Mr. Shannon reminded us of something that will sound familiar to my regular readers: In the next 12 months there will be only 165 new units added to downtown inventory. After that there are no condominium developments set to break ground, period. This means that if a buyer wants a new high rise condominium, they have the best pricing and selection for years to come right now.

BLU, One Rincon and The Infinity are steadily moving their remaining homes. Discounts from list are the norm and my knowledge and expertise will afford you an incredible value. After One Hawthorn launches in early summer with 165 units you can quote Bugs Bunny by saying, "That's All, Folks."

If you or someone you know has contemplated a purchase Downtown, I highly recommend contacting me. Once this inventory is absorbed, selection will be limited to resales and prices, dare I say, may be higher for what will then be a very limited supply.

The Yoga Room is Nice, But Do They Have a Medical Concierge ?

2009-10-20T09:13:00.000-07:00

I was at the hospital in the waiting room. My partner had been in surgery for a few hours and I was anxiously awaiting word on how he was doing. Having already finished my Vanity Fair, Car & Driver and Elle Decor magazines, I found myself eavesdropping on the conversation taking place next to me. The older woman said, "We got up at 3:30AM to make sure we'd be on time this morning. Took I-5 to 80 but traffic started to get bad once we got into Livermore, I was afraid we'd miss his appointment." The younger woman then asked, "What are you going to do tonite ?" The other responded ruefully, "Drive back and hope we can take him home tomorrow, otherwise we'll have to make the trip all over again the next day."

In the past year, four people very dear to me have had diagnoses that required them to have surgery and extensive follow-up care.
Thankfully, they all had great outcomes and can count themselves among the lucky that have insurance and access to world-class doctors and hospitals. These are things you don't think about until you need them.

It's not just about having health care, but easy access to it. I can't imagine having a sick loved one and then managing the logistics of being several hours away from quality care. The fact that the hospital is just 15 minutes from our home was comforting during a time when I needed all the comfort I could get.

A prediction: proximity to health care will be a significant driver for real estate values in the future, even more so than now. As the population ages, more and more people of means will demand quick and easy access to the best care.

San Francisco is already an expensive city and many of us justify the sacrifices we make to live here by reminding ourselves of the beauty and quality of life we enjoy. Part of that quality is being close to the services you want and need; be they The Ferry Building, Bloomingdale's, or in this case UCSF Mount Zion Hospital.

Catching Up With... 829 Folsom & 77 Van Ness

2009-10-13T09:31:00.000-07:00

It was four months ago (see 6/2/09 entry) that I reviewed the freshly launched developments at 829 Folsom & 77 Van Ness. After all this time on the market, you may be wondering how they've done ? Lets take a look.

No Nobel Prize in Economics for 829 Folsom.

I thought the initial pricing here was aggressive and now there is proof. The sales team just announced new prices for the studio and 1-bedroom homes here. Now starting at 365K and 499K respectively, the sales team may just get enough traffic from these reductions to write some deals. They should anticipate throwing in some HOA dues and credits as well since they are still listed about 10% higher than the competition.

Rumor has it that 10 out of the 69 units have gone into contract since June. Closings will commence once the occupancy permit is issued within the next few weeks. We'll see about that, and I'll see you at the Grand Opening Party which the sales team informed me is imminent.

How It's Done: 77 Van Ness Hits It Out of The Park.

With studios starting at 360K and 1-bedroom's at 443K, I predicted that 77 Van Ness would have no trouble kicking off sales with terrific momentum. Four months later, there are approximately eight out of the original 50 units still available.

These are stunning numbers for post-recession San Francisco, so what gives ? In addition to being a well conceived product in terms of quality, floor plans and finishes; 77 Van Ness was value priced. This developer did not want to sit on a building and tell potential buyers to go elsewhere by pricing themselves above the market. They let the market tell them where it was, and it seems to have worked out for both sides.

Although they probably didn't make the dump truck full of cash they had hoped to; the 77 Van Ness team sold this building at an enviable rate in a crummy market. Congratulations to them and the new homeowners.

For more detailed information on these two developments don't be shy, call or write me !

A Global Perspective on the Downtown San Francisco Condominium Market

2009-10-06T07:52:00.000-07:00

One of the great perks of travel is seeing other parts of the world and comparing them to yours. Maybe I have a bit of one ups-manship in my blood; heck, I wouldn't be in sales if I didn't. I love comparing and contrasting different products and markets and dicing and slicing what creates desirability and value. Having just returned yesterday from almost three weeks in New Zealand, Australia and The Solomon Islands, I had the opportunity to check out some new residential development in all three. You may consult your atlas for The Solomon Islands... now.

Just as I did a few months ago after my visit to San Diego (see the 7/21/09 edition), lets take a look at some Pacific Rim metropolises and see how their real estate markets are faring in the global economy after the event the rest of the world refers to as The GFC (Global Financial Crisis).

Auckland, New Zealand

Downtown Auckland is similar is age, size and scale to San Francisco's. It's also a port city with a deep affection for sailing that did not wane with the advent of suspension bridges and automobiles. During the boom market, Kiwis took advantage of cheap money just like Americans and they snapped up high rise flats and renovated historic lofts with equal gusto. With the ensuing run-up in prices and the GFC's unfortunate visit last fall, values and sales volume took a tumble. Things are starting to look up, but the New Zealand economy has been slow to recover. With an enviable lifestyle including water views and a wonderful food and wine culture, don't cry too hard for Aucklanders.

Brisbane, Australia

Long derided as the country bumpkin cousin of Australia's better known and more glamorous Sydney and Melbourne; Brisbane is literally on the rise. This river city boasts a thriving arts district, a pedestrianized Downtown and a skyline transformed in the last ten years by both residential and commercial development. Australia's economy thrived in the 2000's, but had the benefit of more thorough regulation than the US and other markets. The result ? A better safety net and less job losses after the GFC and a housing market that has lost little value since last year.

Honiara, Solomon Islands

Downtown Honiara has a ways to go. Lacking sidewalks, consistent pavement and traffic signals, it's the capital of cinder block chic.
I admit that one doesn't go to The Solomon Islands looking for urban sophistication. It's more of a beach and diving destination better known as the setting for some pivotal naval battles in the Pacific theater during World War II. High end housing Honiara style is a walled compound in the hills above town. Although it's not much right now, foreign investment has come to town and it hasn't been deterred by the crisis, primarily because it's so cheap in the first place. Give Downtown Honiara another fifty years.

It's great to be home in the best City in the world.

I Can Finally Say I Like Millennium Tower

2009-09-15T09:20:00.000-07:00

Millennium Tower and I have had a tumultuous relationship since we were introduced a few years back.

At first, the renderings and floor plans seduced me into a brave new world of 5 star luxury without the hotel component attached, like St Regis and Four Seasons.

But as the building rose toward the sky and plans for the new Transbay Tower adjacent were finalized, I became disenchanted. Live next to a construction site for the next 15 years ? $1200 per month HOA dues ? No terrace ?

I reluctantly put Millennium Tower on the back burner and started seeing other developments.

After the building was finished I went for a tour. The Tower looked great. Finishes, amenities, views; everything was there. But the same misgivings I'd had before came up again. Still, it was great to see the finished product, even if it felt a little desolate.

Flash forward to last Sunday and the realization that sometimes, you need to look at property through someone else's eyes to see it's true appeal.

My clients and I have been searching for a new construction high rise pied-a-terre and have seen all contenders. Must-haves include views, two or three bedroom's and an environment that's conducive to enjoying The City with as little fuss as possible. Especially with two young children and a lifestyle that includes a primary residence a few hours drive away and frequent travel.

Pulling into the driveway, the valet took our cars and we were greeted by the Doorman, and then it hit me. This is how they do it in Manhattan. It would be daunting to drive up to your building on a busy city street and manage cars, children, luggage, et al without assistance.

Millennium Tower units are also larger than average. The typical 2-bedroom plus den is about 1600 square feet compared to 1400 square feet or less elsewhere. A four person family wants to be able to spread out a little, even in town.

Pricing has been adjusted by 15% for many months. That, and being open to lease-to-own agreements has led them to be 30% sold. A lease-to-own agreement may sound odd for a building of this caliber, but a buyer willing to part with almost $2 Million these days appreciates the opportunity for a test drive.

After we completed our tour my client summed it up: "I thought it was going to be old-school and uptight, but it's exactly the way we pictured living Downtown without knowing what it could look like."

I'm happy that Millennium Tower and I are seeing each other again and that I introduced it to my clients. It may be a perfect match.

For pricing, availability and details on the lease-to-own program at Millennium Tower, make certain to contact me.

Grey Gardens, San Francisco Edition: A Tour of The Bourn Mansion at 2550 Webster

2009-09-08T20:12:00.000-07:00

When was the last time you were able to tour a crumbling Pacific Heights mansion ? For many Realtors, architecture enthusiasts, neighbors and looky-loos, Tuesday was the day. 2550 Webster Street at Broadway (aka The Bourn Mansion) was designed by renowned San Francisco architect Willis Polk in 1896 and is an unusual Jacobean/Georgian Revival style hybrid.

Now in foreclosure, the manse was built for the man that founded what would later become PG&E, but that's not what makes it so compelling. The current owner is the infamous Arden Van Upp. A Bay Area eccentric that purchased the house in the 1970's and subsequently became an erstwhile counter-culture doyenne. In the swinging 70's, Van Upp hosted huge, days long parties whose guests included rock stars, celebrities, hippies, society swells, druggies, politicians; you get the picture.

During the 1990s, there was a marked reversal of fortune and the parties stopped. The once "shabby but genteel" mansion started an inexorable slide into oblivion even though it is a registered San Francisco landmark. Given this back story, who could resist a peek inside ?

The mansion is foreboding and seems to swallow you up as you enter the large, dark central hall that rises four stories. The elaborate woodwork throughout is spectacular, the layout is original 1890's with nary an update in sight. Some rooms were chock full of furniture. clothes and personal effects, others vacant. As you entered the original kitchen the extent of neglect became obvious, The back of the house had literally fallen off and was exposed to the elements. This is not what you expect to see in Pacific Heights circa 2009.

The most amazing part of my tour ? A black clad Arden Van Upp herself sat in a broken chair parked next to a jumble of personal effects in her crumbling Drawing Room. The sense of despair was palpable as she watched the crowd mill through her home.

I wanted to say something to her, but couldn't bring myself to. My much bolder friend complemented her on her home and asked, "What are you going to do with everything in the house, sell it ?" referring to the detritus of 40 years stacked all around. Lightning suddenly flashed behind her previously forlorn eyes, "NOTHING is for sale here!" she exclaimed.

Every house has a story, some more compelling than others. I'm glad I had a chance to see the end of this epic chapter in 2550 Webster's history before a brave buyer begins the next. I hope it's a happy ending.

If Good News Is Boring, Prepare to be Bored.

2009-09-01T08:53:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the fourth quarter of 2009. It was just one year ago that the sky started to fall as most investment banks and the stock market sank like snitches wearing cement footwear in the bay. It was a scary time. The first few quarters of 2009 didn't make people feel any better with job losses mounting, foreclosures rising and no end in sight to the federal bailout-palooza.

That was the bad news. The good news ? Here we are, one year later and... things seem to have stabilized. Although employment numbers in the Bay Area could be better, we haven't seen the massive job losses other regions have endured.
Why ? San Francisco and the Bay Area have a diverse employment base. Tourism, finance, software, technology, government, and bio-tech have all helped the region weather the storm. People continue to move to San Francisco for jobs. Evidence ? The new rental complex Strata in Mission Bay is fully leased after three months of marketing. Most tenants are transferees.

But what about real estate ? San Francisco has seen some values slide a bit. The first six months of the year, buyers and sellers were trying to get a grip on where the floor was for prices in all city districts. As Spring turned to summer, Downtown buyers found comfort in where pricing had landed and came out in droves. With the lending climate thawing, it was a perfect storm and developments like The Infinity and The Hayes booked record numbers. As I mentioned in this space before, we did not see that high a rate of absorption even at the height of the boom.

Another sign of stability: Multiple offers. If the price is right and value is obvious, properties are garnering multiples. This isn't true for all property types, but does prove that there are plenty of buyers out there that are qualified and ready to purchase. Example: A single family home in Eureka Valley was priced aggressively two weeks ago when it went on the market as a short sale with a lender approved list price. It went into contract over asking with 14 offers.

Cheers to a peaceful September and have a great Labor Day.

Questions about the current value of your property or what your dollar will buy you Downtown ? Let me help.

Downtown Inventory Sampler: Back-To-School Special

2009-08-25T09:01:00.000-07:00

It was July 7th when we last visited our ten pet developments. Summer was just kicking off and now, sadly the season is almost over. But this isn't Nantasket nor Nantucket. Any San Franciscan worth their salt knows that September and October are the warmest and sunniest months of the entire year. The best is yet to come.

Inventory in San Francisco is typically low in August with summer buyers completing transactions and vacations taking priority for others. The numbers below seem to bear that out with the anticipated September inventory bump right around the corner.

The Beacon

Three studios, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedroom. Available units: 10. Total units: 595.

The Metropolitan

Six 1-bedroom, four 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 11. Total units: 342.

Watermark

One 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 136.

200 Brannan

One 1-bedroom, Five 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 7. Total units: 191.

The Brannan

Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 2. Total units: 339.

The Potrero

No resale inventory. Total units: 155

The Hayes

No resale inventory. Total units: 128

Arterra *

No resale inventory. Total units: 269.

The Infinity *

One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 364 (excluding Tower II).

One Rincon Hill *

Two 1-bedroom and One 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units overall: 376.

* New inventory still available from the developer.

Expect these numbers to swell like the crowds at Dolores Park as the fall selling season kicks off after Labor Day.

For more detail and guidance on the Downtown market whether you are a buyer or a seller, contact me.

201 Folsom (Infinity Junior) Would Like A Three Year Delay Granted, Pretty Please ???

2009-08-17T22:11:00.000-07:00

I just parked my VW on Main Street and was feeding the meter when I spied one of those Planning Department Public Notices which are always interesting. Sometimes the property owner or renter wants a license to serve alcohol. Others announce the desired intention to either demolish a building or get a project approved. This one however, I had never seen before:

"An application for an extension in the performance period for another 3 years from the original expiration date of Case No. 2000.1073C, Motion No. 16647, for the approval of a mixed use project consisting of an 80-foot podium, with up 725 dwelling units, 750 off-street parking spaces, 38,000 square feet of commercial space and 272 replacement off-street parking spaces for the adjacent USPS facility. No changes are proposed for the existing project as originally approved."

This was posted last Monday and the hearing occurred last Thursday at 1:30PM. Although I was unable to attend, I'd be surprised if The Planning Department didn't rubber stamp it and move on to someones illegal in-law unit in the Sunset.

With any luck, the plans for Infinity Junior (sorry) 201 Folsom will remain shelved; awaiting a more favorable lending environment for large-scale developments. One catch, though. A Tishman Speyer insider told me that the as-approved project would need to achieve prices of $1400 per square foot in order to break even. As optimistic as I am about Downtown condominiums, I don't see prices doubling five years from now. That would be the time these units hit the market if construction begins three years hence.

One never knows what the future will bring, but I'll bet you lunch at Prospect (which Nancy Oakes officially purchased in The Infinity's restaurant space two weeks ago ) that the current design will need some tweaking in order to pencil out in the near-term. That, and parking on Main Street is going to be a lot more difficult.

For the latest availability and pricing at Downtown condominiums, drop me line.

Would You Like Pre-Paid HOA Dues With That Condo ? Banks May Say, "Not So Fast..."

2009-08-11T12:50:00.000-07:00

My clients and I were expecting our loan documents to be at title and ready to sign Friday afternoon. Friday came and went, no docs. We were told to expect them Monday for sure. As I write this, they have not appeared at title.

"What's going on ?" I asked the broker, who normally gets things done when promised and is quick with responses. The reason was twofold, and could have a big impact on the way we have been structuring new construction sales contracts for almost three years.

When the market started to soften in San Francisco toward the fourth quarter of 2006, developers had to get creative. I remember brainstorming ideas on how to create an incentive for new buyers while not alienating those that were already in contract by reducing prices. The answer was credits !

Credits to the buyer in the form of pre-paid HOA dues,design center credits, interest rate buy-downs and/or closing costs became all the rage.They allowed the sales offices to keep their prices high while offering value-adds to skittish buyers that were spooked by what they were seeing in the Las Vegas, Miami and Arizona markets.

Even when sellers finally bit the bullet and lowered prices late last year,credits were still the icing on the cake for most deals. It seems this is about to change.

I'm not clear yet on whether it's lenders, appraisers or both; but banks are starting to take the dollar value of those incentives and reduce the appraised value by that figure. This throws a huge wrench into the gears that have been making deals happen in new construction and could spell out a new reality for buyers and developer sellers.

No matter how you feel about these credits, it does make one wonder why banks and appraisers should be allowed to dictate how deals are structured when incentives have nothing to do with an appraisers job of justifying value.

Even if this does come to pass and credits are somehow eliminated from these transactions, I'm not overly concerned. Where there is a will, there is a way and a developer that needs to sell units can be very willful indeed.

Bored Buyers Bemoan Banal Buildings; Brace for Beacons of Bravado.

2009-08-03T21:51:00.000-07:00

I've been working with a fabulous client, lets call her Gigi. Gigi has lived all over the world and has a healthy budget (1Million give or take) and a desire to live Downtown. We've seen everything from One Rincon Hill to The Ritz Carlton and back again and her feedback has been consistent: Nice buildings, great locations, but is there anything "new" ? What she means by new is New; fresh to the market, still rising, a dream unfulfilled but reaching for the heavens. I get where she's coming from.

Three years ago when the real estate market was zooming ever higher and multiple developments were rising Downtown and more planned, there was a sense of optimism and excitement. The City was changing, empty lots were filling in and a whole new way of living in Downtown San Francisco was quickly becoming the way to live in San Francisco. We all know what happened shortly thereafter; cancelled projects, delayed second phases and a skyline left in limbo.

Like a rainbow after a thunderstorm, I have good news. There is a new tower rising at Howard and Hawthorne that will add some much needed new blood. One Hawthorne has topped off at 24 stories and its facade is almost complete. Its a fine looking edifice, offering not only the promise of a fresh option Downtown but a return to a sense of progress and change. You might compare it to shopping at your favorite clothing store: You visit week after week, searching for a new look and ending up seeing the same old stuff. Well Downtown condo shoppers, that is about to change.

It can't come too soon for Gigi. Her insatiable thirst for high-rise living has caused her to rent a beautiful new condominium Downtown until One Hawthorne is ready for occupancy. Cheers, Gigi !

If you would like to be put on the priority interest list for One Hawthorne make certain to let me know.

LEED, SCHMEED. Just turn the lights off when you leave the room!

2009-07-27T16:29:00.000-07:00

It's official. San Francisco now has it's first 'green' residential high rise. Arterra in Mission Bay was awarded a LEED (Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design) Silver certification last week which means that the building achieved the required points on the scale that measures environmentally friendly practices and design. From their website:

Green Building Council members, representing every sector of the building industry, developed and continue to refine LEED. The rating system addresses six major areas:

Sustainable sites
Water efficiency
Energy and atmosphere
Materials and resources
Indoor environmental quality

LEED was created to accomplish the following:

Define "green building" by establishing a common standard of measurement
Promote integrated, whole-building design practices
Recognize environmental leadership in the building industry
Stimulate green competition
Raise consumer awareness of green building benefits
Transform the building market

That's a pretty wide-ranging mission they have there. Granted, environmentally sound building practices and materials were around long before LEED came up with their criteria and scorecard. We do have to start somewhere, though and there are now hundreds of LEED certified buildings across the country. The irony is that almost all of them are in cities. Urban environments are inherently "greener" than the suburbs because they use less space, energy and resources to support higher human density.

When I think about the relative efficiencies that a LEED certified building provides versus a non-LEED building compared to acres and acres of McMansions bleeding the grid dry, I wonder if the LEED emphasis on urban construction is misplaced.

In future, we will see more efficient building practices become the rule and not the exception and LEED certification is an important and viable first stage in this cycle. Just like hybrid vehicles are not the ultimate solution to our dependence on oil, but an important "bridge technology" that will get the auto industry to the next platform for efficient 4-wheel transport. Regardless, it's important to support new methods and technologies as they develop and LEED certification is one step in the right direction.

Turning the tap off while you brush your teeth is another !

A Fresh Take on a Much Maligned Market: Welcome to San Diego !

2009-07-21T08:50:00.000-07:00

I've lived in San Francisco for 12 years and seen my fair share of California. But up until last Thursday, I had never been to San Diego. Along with world famous weather, I wanted to see one of the first residential markets to experience a major downturn when the 'bubble' started to burst back in 2006. The hardest hit part of the San Diego market was Downtown residential condominium towers which you all know hold a special place in my heart.

So, it was off to Sapphire Tower. Touted as the finest residential high rise Downtown, I was anxious to take a look at what constitutes "luxury" in San Diego. To be honest, my expectations were low.

Divided into three "Series" not unlike Millennium Tower; Sapphire tops out at 33 stories with density decreasing from six to four to two units per floor as you reach the Sapphire Series penthouses.

Featuring 10.5 foot ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glass for all windows, unusually large square footage and spectacular water and city views, this development team has done almost everything right. The finishes are truly luxurious and make some San Francisco development kitchens and baths look positively spartan. My only quibble: The lobby and common hallways do not match the unit interiors in terms of quality and style.

Since the grand opening last January, the Sapphire team has sold 32 out of 97 units with prices per square foot ranging from $373 to $2000. Their best Penthouse sold for $6.16M a few months ago-- just about what "G" paid for his Infinity penthouse back in '06.

Not all San Diego developments are doing as well as Sapphire Tower. Their success does prove that the right product at the right time at the right price will almost always sell, even in San Diego during a recession.

I had a wonderful visit but plan on staying put in my favorite city in the world, San Francisco.

Just like Champagne & Caviar (or Beer & Pizza): Coveted Neighborhoods & Parks Go Together.

2009-07-14T00:20:00.000-07:00

London has Regents Park. Paris, The Tuileries. New York has Central Park and even Los Angeles has Griffith Park. What about San Francisco ?

Sure, we have Golden Gate Park, The National Seashore and even The Presidio. But what do you do if you live Downtown and want to go for a run, bathe in the sun or just have some outdoor fun ?

Depending on where you live Downtown, there is a wealth of options for public space. Most of these parks have their own unique flavor and style, making them true San Francisco gems.

Here's a rundown of Downtown San Francisco park options. Don't forget sunblock:

South Park

Bounded by Second and Third Streets and Bryant and Brannan Streets, South Park was laid out in the 1850's and was modeled on the oval shaped urban residential parks that began showing up in England and the US in the mid-1700's. Designed to be the last word in plush residential developments, South Park quickly lost favor with the rich as it's proximity to the working waterfront never made for peaceful coexistence. Fast forward to the 21st century and you see a neighborhood park that retains its original shape and scale but is now surrounded by design firms, tech start-ups, cutting-edge condominiums and a wide array of dining options. The plantings and hardscape could use some freshening but it's still a great space to grab lunch or read under a tree.

Mission Creek Park

The newest park Downtown, Mission Creek Park is located on both sides of the channel or 'creek' and has Berry Street as it's Northern border and Channel Street to the south. Developed in 2000 by ProLogis Corporation, the park is beautifully designed and landscaped. It provides a wealth of recreational options including a fenced-in dog run, basketball courts, tennis courts and a public kayak launch. Mission Creek Park offers residents and visitors alike a pristine respite from the noise and traffic of the city. As the south side of Mission Bay continues to develop, this park will link to other parks forming a network of green spaces that will snake through the neighborhood and along the waterfront. Some may criticize Mission Bay as being generic, but the parks running through it will create the greenest neighborhood in San Francisco.

The Embarcadero

Spanish for 'wharf' or 'pier', The Embarcadero is undoubtedly Downtown's most spectacular public space. Stretching from Pier 37 all the way around to AT&T Park, The Embarcadero is famous for it's views and the sheer scale of it's unbroken waterfront access. Perfect for cyclists, runners and baby strollers alike, one doesn't have to worry about the stop and start of crossing streets but still needs to be aware of tourist groups shuffling along and the occasional sea lion. A thorough upgrade started over ten years ago has been completed featuring public art and street furniture by Stanley Saitowitz and other local notables. The Embarcadero hosts The Ferry Building, a fire boat station, visiting ocean liners and one of the worlds best farmers markets. Given the cinematic scenery, it's no wonder that The Embarcadero appears in TV commercials consistently. Simply stated, it's one of the worlds most spectacular urban parks.

Now that you know where to go, get out there and enjoy! SPF 15 or higher.

Downtown Inventory Sampler

2009-07-07T09:25:00.000-07:00

It's been a few months since we took a snap shot of resale inventory at the selected developments below. The most interesting thing to note this time around is that the numbers are almost identical to the last time. To quote Depeche Mode, did the market "Get the balance right" ? Or are we in for a "Black Celebration"? Whatever the case may be, homes priced for the current market are selling, albeit with longer marketing times.

If you have questions about the value of your home or are looking for a "New Life" in a Downtown condominium, let me know.

No more 80's Depeche Mode references (in this article), I promise.

The Beacon

Two studios, eight 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms
Total units available: 14. Total units overall: 595.

The Metropolitan

Three 1-bedrooms and one 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 4. Total units overall: 342.

Watermark

One 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 3. Total overall: 136.

200 Brannan

Three 1-bedrooms, FIve 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Total units available: 9. Total units overall: 191.

The Brannan

One 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 5. Total units overall: 339.

The Potrero

Two 1-bedrooms, One 3-bedroom. Total units available: 3. Total units overall: 155.

The Hayes

No resale units. Total units overall: 128.

Arterra *

No resale units. Total units overall: 269.

The Infinity

One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Total units available: 2. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).

One Rincon Hill *

One 1-bedrooms and One 2-bedroom. Total resale units available: 2. Total units overall: 376.

Taking the Week Off, but...

2009-06-30T00:31:00.000-07:00

233 years ago some brave and noble people drafted the preamble to The Declaration of Independence.

It's worth a read if you haven't seen it lately:

"When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

Have a wonderful Independence Day !

Infinity Tower II almost 50% sold in 5 months. Hmmmmmm...

2009-06-23T09:11:00.000-07:00

Through a combination of pent-up demand, attractive interest rates and significant seller discounts, The Infinity Tower II has approximately 140 out of 285 units currently in contract or closed since sales began in early February.

This astounding number of sales is not so surprising when you look at the fundamentals of the Downtown market. Achieving a great price in this environment is still possible, you just need to know the music so you can dance along and always keep your eye on the goal.

1.) Competition ? What competition ?

For those that want new, high rise and downtown, there are four choices: BLU, Millennium, One RIncon and Infinity. All are very nice buildings. Out of these four The Infinity seems to have the combination of amenities, views, location and value that are driving sales numbers that I didn't see in new construction even at the height of the bubble.

2.) V is for Value.

In an uncertain market it takes a compelling argument for buyers to pony-up the dough. That, and a motivated seller. Although buyers and their agents must sign confidentiality agreements regarding the details of their contracts, I can say that the discounts being offered at most sales offices right now are dramatic but not fire sale.

This may sound lame but it bears repeating: This is San Francisco. Buyers need to go through several rounds of offers before striking a deal.

3.) Reality Bites.

Sometimes buyers judgement gets a little cloudy which is no surprise given the emotional nature of purchasing a home. The most important thing to remember during negotiations is to keep your cool and try to put yourself in the seller' shoes. Even though they may be a faceless, corporate behemoth you are still working with a human. One that most likely has to report to another human. That, and this development is his or her baby. When you submit a low-ball offer don't be surprised with a high counter. You've just started to dance so don't get discouraged or angry, hang in there.

If The Infinity can keep it's current weekly absorption numbers going, they will be sold out by the end of the year. I don't think that's their goal, though. At half sold they have achieved an enviable velocity that can be slowed, if they so desire, to try to achieve higher prices on their remaining inventory. That may seem foolish given continuing economic uncertainty but don't believe you know what the seller is thinking.

Ask me and I'll tell you.

The Skinny on Short Sales

2009-06-16T10:17:00.000-07:00

Just the mind-splitting hangover some people wake up with after over indulging, some folks these days are coming to a painful realization. After the debt party many of us attended prior to "last call" on Wall Street in September of 2008, it is now clear that there are people with great credit, good income and property that is not worth what they paid or what they currently owe.

This may be due to purchasing at the peak of the market or pulling equity out of the property for other uses. The sad truth is that a lot of people who never thought they would be in this situation are crunching the numbers and realizing that they cannot continue to bleed money keeping up with their mortgage, HOA dues and taxes.
That, or they don't have the ability to keep up with these obligations due to a job loss or other crisis.

So how does one get out from under property that has become a burden ?

Back in the day, you simply stopped paying the mortgage and waited for the bank to foreclose and then sell your house on the courthouse steps. Soon after, the sheriff arrived to evict you and toss you and your stuff on the curb. How Dickensian.

Fortunately, things are a little more civil these days and people do have options. One of the best is to conduct a short sale.

Simply put, a short sale is when the lender agrees that your home is worth less than the debt secured against it. They would rather have the homeowner find a buyer and pay off what they can without the bank having to take possession through foreclosure and then be responsible for taxes, maintenance, and finding a buyer themselves. It sounds simple enough, but the process can be daunting and time consuming and not every person or every property qualifies for a short sale.

The larger banks have set up short sale departments and are implementing processes and standards. It's not a perfect solution, but it is getting easier.

In the coming months I believe that we will see more short sales and these transactions will take place in neighborhoods and developments that were once thought to be immune.

We are fortunate to live in a city that still has terrific fundamentals and a strong and diverse employment base. That coupled with global cachet will ensure that San Francisco will always be a desirable place to live and work which will, in turn, keep real estate values strong.

The real estate boom, like all parties, was sad when it ended. It's good to know that there is a cure for this particular hangover and it does not involve raw eggs, chili pepper or 'hair of the dog'.

If you have questions about the short sale process, would like to know if you qualify or want to purchase one, contact me.

Creative Contractors Customize Condos, Curing Cookie-Cutter Crisis.

2009-06-08T21:48:00.000-07:00

If there is one silver lining to the recession, it's that goods and services are generally more available and affordable than they have been in a long time. It's easier to get a seat on that plane to New York, The Barcelona Chair you've been coveting is in stock in your preferred color and contractors from painters to plumbers will actually return your phone call and be eager to set up an appointment to give you an estimate.

Welcome to the flip-side of The Great Recession.

Case in point: I am preparing a listing to go on the market where the tenant moved out June 1st leaving dead trees in the patio planters and carpet that suffered, not only from a St Bernard puppy, but an exploding can of black acrylic paint. In the space of one week I was able to get the dead trees removed and replaced, the offending carpet banished and swapped with pristine broadloom and the unit staged, fluffed and ready for it's close-up. And all for about 20% less than what it would have cost me a year ago.

The take-away ?

Now is a fantastic time to invest in customizing and embellishing your Downtown home. Yes, the developer's finishes are perfectly acceptable but contractors are ready, willing and able give you a bid and make your house your home. Whether or not you wish to add built-in bookshelves, replace the derivative lighting and mirror in the bath or invest in hardwood floors, chances are you will get a competitive bid and someone ready to start work immediately.

The best part ?

If you make informed decisions and choose your upgrades well, your home will become a custom lair tailored to your needs and will feel less like it just came down the assembly line. In future, when you decide to sell, your condominium will stand out against the competition and reflect pride of ownership.

Just try to avoid polka dots, gold leaf and neon accent walls.

New Kids On The Block: 829 Folsom & 77 Van Ness Make Their Debuts

2009-06-02T09:50:00.000-07:00

It's been quite a while since we've seen two new developments open for sales within one week of each other in San Francisco.
829 Folsom and 77 Van Ness have joined the new condominium development party and although much smaller in scale and lighter on the amenities than The Infinity or BLU, they are both real contenders for buyers deposit checks.

Lets look at the details:

First up is 829 Folsom. Located between Fourth and Fifth Streets, this building sits between the iconic 855 Folsom (aka Yerba Buena Lofts) and the fairly mundane 821 Folsom (aka Shipley Square). There are 69 units in the nine story structure and there is a standard parking space included in the price for almost every home.

The Folsom, Shipley and interior courtyard facades are clad in an attractive floor-to-ceiling glass system that provides great light and views from the interiors.
The dramatic differences between this buildings facade and it's immediate neighbors creates a unique streetscape that may not be everyone's taste, but will ensure much attention and debate during AIA tours.

Not up for debate are the interior finishes, which are wonderful. Kitchens and baths are nicely outfitted and flooring, trims and doors all have a quality, high-end feel.

The floor plans here are unique and in some cases, idiosyncratic. Some offer long entrance galleries and big closets. Others sport generous terraces and large "plus" rooms or dens.

Studios start $399K, one-bedrooms at $524K and one-bedroom plus dens at $589K. They are not officially marketing the 2-bedrooms but I saw a terrific unit on the fifth floor with an incredible terrace that is being offered at 1.3M. Not sure how realistic that price is but time and 829 Folsom's sales velocity will tell us soon.

Our second "new kid" is 77 Van Ness. I have to be honest that I was not expecting much from this development. Located on super-busy Van Ness Avenue directly across the street from depressing, soviet inspired buildings, I thought I was entering the condominium version of Siberia. I could not have been more wrong.

The eight story building is actually five floors and 50 units of residential sitting above three floors of commercial office and ground floor retail. A subtle and tasteful lobby and elevator bank are shared by both. Parking is provided via Klaus lifts for all units and it is included in the price.

The exterior does a good job blending in with the neighbors (Masonic Hall and a San Francisco School Board building) and there are alleys on both sides giving the building plenty of light and air.
Floor plans, finishes, views and square footage are all exemplary. My only quibble being that the interior doors are a traditional two-panel style which clashes slightly with the otherwise clean and contemporary aesthetic seen everywhere else.

The neighborhood may be considered Civic Center but I predict that the future residents of 77 Van Ness will be spending most of their free time in Hayes Valley; conveniently located two blocks west.

Studios start at $360K, one-bedrooms at $443K and two-bedrooms at $641K. Given the overall quality of this building, I'd say these are some of the best values I've ever seen in San Francisco.

My favorite aspect of both buildings ? They are known by their address only and have eschewed a "name". These kids are very 2009.

To schedule a tour of one or both of these new-to-the-market developments please call or email me.

Taking a Walk on the Mild Side, New York City Begins Bold Planning Experiment in Times & Herald Squares. A Model for Downtown San Francisco ?

2009-05-26T09:02:00.000-07:00

Ask anybody who lives in an urban environment if they ever had a close call with a car or truck while attempting to walk across the street and chances are they will have more than one anecdote. Unfortunately, most of us have accepted that being a pedestrian in San Francisco comes with the added thrill of taking your life in your hands once you step off the curb.

Drivers aren't the only culprits. Every week I see people stepping into the street engrossed in their mobile phones without a single glance toward oncoming traffic. It seems they expect the cars, buses and trucks will slow or stop to allow them to cross, unscathed. Never mind that the drivers too, are engrossed in their mobile phones or checking their teeth in the rear-view mirror.

With these scenarios in mind, New York City's Transportation Commissioner completed an ambitious project Sunday that closed two sections of Broadway to vehicles from 47th to 42nd Streets in Times Square and 35th to 33rd Streets in Herald Square. Her goals are twofold: improve traffic flow in these otherwise gridlocked locations by routing traffic to cross streets and the creation of broad pedestrian plazas in two of Manhattans most celebrated and crowded urban gathering places. The plan has its share of critics but it's hard to argue with a scheme that carves public open space out of dense, built- out areas without the loss of public or private property.

Can San Francisco take a cue from The Big Apple by appropriating sections of our streets and giving them back to residents and visitors who will actually use them ? Or is maintaining the full length of Market, Mission, Howard, Folsom, Harrison, Bryant, Brannan and Townsend Streets for SUV's speeding toward the Bay Bridge the best use of these unrecognized resources ?

There have been plans floating around City Hall since the 1960's to close some or all of Market Street (San Francisco's Broadway) to vehicular traffic. Each time a new plan surfaces, it gets shot down by merchant groups claiming that closing the street will hurt their business by impeding the flow of customers and delivery trucks. As one ponders the public transit already in place and the primarily retail and office uses of buildings along Market, it's hard to fathom that this scheme would do anything but draw more people to patronize these businesses.

San Francisco has however, planned for a new and improved Folsom Street Corridor from The Embarcadero to Second Street. The approved plan includes widening sidewalks, planting trees and other traffic calming measures that will take back part of the street for pedestrians. The plan looks good on paper but the reality is that "Folsom Boulevard" as envisioned won't happen for at least another ten years or whenever the new TransBay Terminal, Tower and related construction is complete.

It's not all doom and gloom, though, for those who can envision Downtown transformed into a safer, more human-focused environment. When the various neighborhood farmers' markets and street fairs take place, we get a short taste of what life could be like when parts of our busy streets are closed. Vendors set up shop, people sit, shop, strut, mingle and, for a few hours, a neighborhood becomes a place for it's residents and visitors to savor and experience without noise, fumes and risk.

It sure beats the life-threatening gamble of calculating whether or not that MUNI bus barreling toward you is going to run the red light or not.

Thinking about buying or selling Downtown ? You owe it to yourself to consult an expert. I'm happy to discuss your real estate goals, no obligation.

Thanks for reading; see you next week.

Pools, Theaters, Concierges, Oh My ! Downtown Developments Offer Amenity Packages to Lure Buyers, Secure Bragging Rights.

2009-05-12T09:12:00.000-07:00

It used to be that when developers were planning a new condominium tower they would include a fitness center, provide a doorman and maybe throw in a pool and they were done. But when the market heated up in the early 2000's, they chose to offer more and more amenities to draw buyers, bolster the building's brand and differentiate from the competition. The flip side of these lavish extras is that they don't come free. For every additional feature, there is the cost to maintain and eventually replace that item-- and that adds to the monthly assessment for each unit in the building.

So is it better to go light on the amenities and reduce the HOA operating expenses, thus reducing the monthly dues ? Or is including even the most esoteric amenity (Olive Oil Steward, perhaps) the way to ensure prestige and future value ?

In post-boom San Francisco, we have three high profile developments that chose unique strategies when it comes to the dog park-guest suite-pilates studio selection process. Let's ponder their merits, shall we ?

BLU

At 112 units, BLU is the smallest community we will be comparing and its size is probably the primary reason the development team chose to go light on the extras. There is a 24 hour doorman stationed in the stylish lobby, a lovely landscaped terrace in the back with a barbecue and catering kitchen and... that's it. While some may squawk at the paucity of amenities, I think it was a smart move. The dues for these 2-bedroom homes average about $625 per month making them the lowest of the three buildings in our comparison. Less equipment to maintain, less energy consumed, less that can go wrong. BLU is the stylish yet sensible lady at the party whose "less is more" approach allows her to leave the diamonds at home while still offering up enough sizzle to keep the crowd interested.

Infinity

Most of my readers are well versed in The Infinity's amenities package, but here's a recap for the uninitiated: heated indoor lap pool, enormous fitness center, his and hers saunas, pilates studio, doormen in all four lobbies, concierge, screening room, business center, conference room, and club room with caterers kitchen and terrace. This impressive list is but an elevator ride away. That said, it's an awful lot of stuff to maintain, so the dues for a 2-bedroom here average about $760 per month. What makes it work? There are over 700 units in the complex, so it's not an onerous cost per individual unit.

Millennium Tower

Representing the ultimate in condominium amenities, Millennium Tower is as luxe and over-the-top as it gets in Downtown San Francisco. In addition to the gym, pool, business center and everything that Infinity offers, Millennium boasts a private dining room serviced by the on-site restaurant RN74, climate controlled wine storage for every unit and an army of liveried staff to take your shopping bags, valet your car, open the door and push the 'up' button on the elevator. If you want 5 star service 24/7, this is the building for you. The price ? Well, if you have to ask.... I'll tell you. This glamour will run you about $1400 per month for a 2-bedroom.

It seems that there is a building for every taste and budget Downtown. Although paying monthly dues on top of the mortgage and property taxes isn't for everyone, it sure beats cleaning out the gutters and mowing the lawn on weekends.

What to do with your exclusive-use common area. That means your terrace.

2009-05-04T19:15:00.000-07:00

When I shopped for my first condominium in San Francisco, one of my "must-haves" was private outdoor space. My terrace measured three by four feet and the door opened out, making most of the floor space unusable. Still, it was wonderful to have a tall clutch of potted bamboo and a perch from which to take in the view, breeze or the 30 minutes of madness after a ball game in Mission Bay.

When my neighbors started storing bicycles, boxes and indoor furniture on their terraces, my lovely new building started to look more like a vertical garbage shelving unit. My favorite item on view for 3 months ? A toilet.

Thankfully, the HOA began enforcing the CC&R's and the terraces were gradually cleaned up. This experience poses the question: What do you do with your small piece of the outdoors in the sky ?

Having successfully created three terrace designs of my own, I'm happy to recommend the following advice:

KISS

Keep it Simple, Silly. Chances are your space is limited. Trying to create an elaborate outdoor room is not in the cards functionally or aesthetically in a small area. Scale your plans accordingly.

The Rule of One

When choosing outdoor furniture and planters, select a single color and style for each. Too much color and variation will make the space appear kitschy when the look you want to achieve is more cohesive and subtle.

Customize

If stock outdoor furniture and planters don't come in sizes suited to the scale of your terrace, have them made.
Commissioning an artisan to design and build custom pieces is not as time consuming or expensive as you may think.
The Bay Area has a large community of talented craftspeople that can create something beautiful, functional and unique--
much better than a milk crate and a beer bottle ashtray.

I Never Promised You a Rose Garden

Lucky as we are to live in San Francisco, it tends to be a bit windy and chilly--not the ideal climate for hot-house orchids or delicately leafed specimens. Select just one or two hardy species such as boxwood or cedar and keep in mind how much sun they will receive. Choosing a plant that is green year-round will create a consistent look that can stand on its own or be enlivened with seasonal color. If your terrace is on a high floor where winds whip, select dense, lower growing plants and don't let them exceed the height of your railing, wind break or parapet wall.

Water Works

Plants need water. Depending on rainfall, temperature and exposure you will need to bring the watering can outside at least 3 days a week. If you plan on being away more than 5 days have someone come by and water. I figured this out when I left town for a week and there was a freak heat wave leaving my plants a healthy shade of brown upon my return. Live and learn.

When a terrace is done well it lends an inviting, finished look to the whole home. It's not that difficult or time consuming and if you are lucky enough to have your own slice of the outdoors in the city; you owe it to yourself to get out there and enjoy it !

"Thank you for calling Future Downtown Residential High Rises, please hold."

2009-04-28T08:52:00.000-07:00

The last two weeks welcomed the first closings at both Millennium Tower and Infinity Tower II with BLU on schedule for May. As these lucky homeowners move in they are probably unaware that they are the first wave of the last batch of new residents we will see Downtown for what could be a decade. These buildings represent the last of the "boom" developments to be completed and open their doors. This however, was not always the case.

It was only a few years ago that developers had been planning three more large-scale condominium towers that would already have broken ground and have sales offices open at this time. All of these projects have been either shelved until further notice, put up for sale or both. The absence of these towers has made an undeniable impact; not only on the skyline but in the downtown residential inventory pipeline.

A brief rundown of the history and status of what could have been:

Turnberry announced last November that they had sold a 50% equity stake in their proposed 40 story tower at First & Harrison. Ground breaking had been scheduled for March of '09. With spring weeds rising on the empty lot instead of concrete and steel the joint ownership is shopping the entitled development to potential buyers.

Across the street at One Rincon Hill; the 50 story Tower Two remains on indefinite hold. The development team announced last week that they are still just 70% sold after nearly three years of marketing. The ghost of Tower Two is still very much part of the logo and marketing collateral for the development. With the first tower standing alone atop Rincon Hill it seems like one half of a broken heart pendant; waiting to be reunited with its lost love.

Traveling one block further east to Harrison and Fremont we encounter more weeds where The Californian should be rising. Developer Fifield's 393 units have been actively shopped for two and a half years with a suitor yet to be found.

One could interpret this as evidence of continued weakness in the San Francisco condominium market, but I disagree. These three developments would have added just over 1,000 units of new construction inventory Downtown. Without the competition and specter of over supply, Downtown developments are doing just fine (albeit with the implementation of significant price adjustments).

Don't cry for the towers that are still just a twinkle in their developers eye. One Hawthorne is proudly representing for them as it rises at the corner of Howard and Hawthorne. The timing for the 24 story165 unit development might be just right.

Hot Enough for Ya ? Downtown Sales Activity, Temperatures, on Upswing.

2009-04-20T15:40:00.000-07:00

Today was a linen shirt type of day. Hot and dry. There was a slight breeze but it was still too warm and stagnant for comfort. Those in the know headed for cooler climates be they the shade of a tree or an air conditioned hide-away.

You could say that the Downtown real estate market has been like a linen shirt to a lot of buyers the past few months. After being stored in a closet since last September it now looks a lot more appealing and appropriate given current circumstances.

We seem to have entered a phase of moderate stability in the markets (yesterday's Dow notwithstanding). Both resale and new construction sellers have adjusted their prices and expectations while at the same time rates are historically low and lenders have loosened the purse strings. 50 sales at The Infinity since the beginning of 2009 does mean something and it's not due to them having air conditioning (lucky!) although that helps.

Bull market ? Not so much. Bottom of the market ? Consult your crystal ball.

If you are a buyer or seller in San Francisco, one thing to remember about real estate markets is that like politics, they are local. What's happening in Manhattan, Los Angeles and Miami may have some relevance to the national market on a macro-level but a good real estate agent will be able to separate the headlines and cocktail chatter from reality.

Who would be more plugged in to what's happening Downtown than someone that lives and breathes it ? That's me.

I'm always happy to answer your questions and accept your referrals !

Stay cool, my friends.

Timely Tax Tricks Tease the Tempted to Take Action: Housing Stimulus for 2009.

2009-04-14T09:40:00.000-07:00

I was between appointments today at one of my favorite Downtown developments and I started thinking about one of the more tangible pieces of legislation from Washington since the new administration took over. The Housing Stimulus laws for 2009 offer home buyers unprecedented incentives to make purchases this year. One piece of the legislation benefits first time buyers exclusively; the other pertains to all California home buyers.

The First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit offers people who have never owned a home or those who have not done so for 3 years an $8,000 credit. The credit is described as "...a dollar-for-dollar reduction in taxes owed...". In other words, if you owe Federal taxes for 2009 and you bought a primary residence, knock $8,000 off your tax bill. If you don't owe any taxes? Uncle Sam writes you a check for $8,000.

The New Home Tax Credit is the second piece of this tasty, cash-filled pie. California residents who purchase a newly constructed primary residence will receive a $10,000 state income tax credit. This credit applies only to new, never lived-in property. Wow.

To receive a pdf of the entire document provided by The California Association of Realtors, email me and I'll be happy to pass it along.

These combined tax incentives along with the mortgage interest deduction, historically low interest rates and the most affordable prices we have seen in years have done the trick, or so it would seem. So far this Spring sales offices are humming, mortgage applications are rising and people are buying.

Which reminds me, I've got an appointment to catch.

The Curious Case of The Downtown Real Estate Market

2009-04-07T09:06:00.000-07:00

Okay people, I've got some numbers for you this week. They don't have anything to do with reverse aging. My apologies about the headline.

I was conducting searches on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) and thought I'd run a little test since the market has seemed much more active in the past few weeks both for me and my colleagues. I searched Mission Bay, Potrero, SOMA and South Beach only. The following numbers track activity from March 1, 2009 through April 6, 200

Closed Sales: 21

Pending/contingent Sales: 48

Remaining Available Listings: 176

During this 37 day period, 69 property owners found themselves with buyers. Not all of these transactions have consummated but that's still healthy activity. What these numbers don't include are most new construction transactions. I would estimate that would add another 50 sales. Those deals would be spread among The Infinity, One Rincon Hill, BLU, and Arterra.

Given these numbers, reports about the death of the Downtown San Francisco real estate market are exaggerated. Prices are down. People are out there buying condominiums.

Spring fever? Crazy contrarians? Pent-up demand? Have we hit the bottom?

I'm just happy to be getting my clients the best possible terms on Downtown condominiums. Let me help you, your friends and colleagues do the same.

It's Not Perfect, But It Ain't The Bronx. Urban Planning, San Francisco Style.

2009-03-30T20:27:00.000-07:00

The New York Times published an interesting article yesterday titled "Reinventing America's Cities: The Time Is Now." by Nicolai Ourous, off. The writer talks about the history of 20th century urban planning, touching on the importance of The Works Progress Administration (WPA) during the depression. The WPA created a huge body of work on a national scale and was the last large, federally-funded public infrastructure project with the exception of the interstate highway system. In San Francisco we have The Rincon Annex Post Office, The Bay Bridge and SFO thanks to FDR's innovative 'make work' program.

With President Obama dedicating billions toward public infrastructure projects, will we see our City change as dramatically as it did in the 1930's?

One project already underway is The Transbay Terminal, although that may be overstating things. The temporary terminal site has been cleared and is being readied for construction that will ultimately lead to the demolition of the old 1937 bus station to make way for the much ballyhooed terminal and tower. Signs of construction may soon materialize on Transbay Block 8. This parcel bordered by First, Folsom, Fremont and Tenny Streets has received three development proposals. These proposals are currently being reviewed but the specifics call for a 550 foot tower with a mid-rise section and retail along Folsom Street. The project will contain 600 rental units and has a 25% affordable component.

This development will be an encouraging sign of life Downtown and will ultimately add to the density and vitality of the neighborhood. At 50+ stories, it should also be a dramatic addition to the skyline.

So raise a glass to Transbay Block 8 and toast to shovels in the dirt. Steel and concrete reaching for the sky--there is no better vote of confidence in the future of Downtown San Francisco! Thanks for reading; see you next Tuesday. Please remind your friends and colleagues that I work for them, not the developer. Do not enter a sales office without my expertise.

Get outta town ! Resort homes offer value and a respite from The City amid recession.

2009-03-23T20:03:00.000-07:00

Growing up middle-class in Connecticut, I never thought it unusual that my maternal grandparents had a second home on a lake in New Hampshire (what we Yankees call a 'camp') and my paternal grandparents had a ski house in Vermont. Most weekends year round were spent in one these modest homes boating, swimming, skiing or visiting the beaver lodges that my grandfather was constantly threatening to blow up with dynamite lest they cause the river to flood the road and homes nearby. It wasn't until I was much older that I discovered that everyone wasn't as lucky as I was.

Although they did well for themselves, I would never describe my grandparents as wealthy. So how did they end up with these terrific second homes that offered a respite from the daily grind and an opportunity for kids like me and my cousins to spend countless days exploring the woods, lakes, mountains and rivers without the distraction of television or the risk of getting hit by a car?

My maternal grandparents grew up in rural settings. Although they were raising my mother and her sisters in the suburbs, they still wanted their family to experience the peace and beauty of the country. So in the late 1950's they bought a rustic, unheated cabin on a bucolic New Hampshire lake. Although it was a lot of money at the time, they paid about $16,000 for the camp and the adjacent lot. Real estate prices had been depressed that year due to a recession in 1957, so Grandpa Tibbetts took a risk. Over the years they made many improvements and they still summer at the camp. I happily visit almost every year. After 51 years it has more than paid for itself and the memories for my entire family are priceless.

My paternal grandparents took advantage of another economic downturn when they acquired land to build a ski house. The 1969 recession hit the country hard, but my Pop Pop had a good year in the auto business. He took some of that money and bought a wooded lot uphill from a river in southern Vermont and built a ski house. His son would soon be a father (mine!) and Pop Pop pictured his growing clan gathered around the fire, drinks in hand, apres-ski. The house that he built with the help of my father, his brother-in-law and his friends became the locus for our family in winter and I cherish the countless memories I have.

In the past, during times of uncertainty, people with moderate incomes felt confident enough in the future to purchase a second home when they saw a good opportunity. Here in San Francisco we live in close proximity to Sonoma and Napa--counties that currently offer incredible value in a globally desirable second home market. Herth Real Estate has a wine country office that specializes in these properties and I'd be happy to help you find your retreat.

OMG ! EIK, WIC & FTCW ! Real estate acronyms 101, Title 24 & You.

2009-03-17T08:50:00.000-07:00

Many people are familiar with the sometimes hilarious acronyms that Realtors use as shorthand to make the most of expensive ad space. EIK, WIC & WBF are more commonly known as eat in kitchens, walk in closets and wood burning fireplaces.

One acronym I have wanted to use but realized no one would understand is FTCW. FTCW or Floor-to-ceiling windows have become one of those encoded signifiers of style and luxury at most of the new and newer Downtown developments. Along with the prerequisite stainless, granite, and hardwood; FTCW have become one of the defining architectural characteristics of new buildings like Millennium, Infinity, & BLU. In Realtor prose, almost always preceded by "Stunning views framed by...", FTCW make even modest square footage feel larger and lighter which also allows developers to charge a premium for these homes even if they are smaller than comparable properties.

What few people realize is that this dramatic feature will most likely become a thing of the past since Title 24 came into law as part of the 2007 California Energy Code. Title 24 was passed in response to increasing energy costs and awareness about our dwindling natural resources back in 2007 when, if you referred to a building as "green", most people assumed you were talking about the exterior color. When you consider heating and cooling these ultra-glazed spaces, it does seem a bit extravagant given our current circumstances.

The new Energy Code increases the efficiency standards for almost all aspects of both commercial and residential new construction. Although most of the changes won't be discernible to the average buyer, a tower sporting a luscious all-glass facade certainly makes a different impression than a window and panel sheathed building. Think Millennium vs The Metropolitan or Heidi Klum vs Barbara Bush. You get the picture.

The current batch of high rises that make use of FTCW-- or glass curtain wall construction-- were designed and approved before the adoption of the 2007 code leaving One Hawthorne perhaps the last high rise under construction in San Francisco to utilize this design feature. Will the current vogue for endless sight lines diminish in a more frugal and less ostentatious age? Or will the glass towers become more desirable in the future compared against their more conservative, hemmed-in and energy efficient neighbors ?

OTWT,TTFN (Only time will tell, ta ta for now).

Its deja vu all over again.

2009-03-10T09:16:00.000-07:00

If you had told people one year ago that at this time in the future the stock market would have lost half of its value, all the major investment banks would be bankrupt and that General Motors would soon be history, they would have said you were crazy.

And here we are.

If we have learned anything, its the more things change, the more they stay the same. The country and the world have some pretty epic challenges to grapple with but if we take a look back, recent history has been pretty dramatic too. Start with colonialism, epidemics, two world wars, the civil rights movement, nuclear proliferation, the gas crisis, 9/11, Iraq Wars I & II and eight years of the Bush administration.

Granted, we are still working on solutions for the last two. What we find is that people in general and Americans in particular are really good at solving problems in times of crisis. It's something to think about when the media is peddling fear and trying to drown you in a sea of bad news. We can get through this by being part of the solution and deciding on... optimism. It really is as easy as that.

Remember my post from February 9th about the single family home in the Sunnyside neighborhood that received 12 offers when it went on the market for $665,000 ? That property closed last week for $705,000.

Trying to sell you're condo ? Don't try to compete with the developer.

2009-02-23T20:50:00.000-08:00

It's called "chasing the bottom". A homeowner enlists the help of a Realtor to price their condominium for a quick sale. The Realtor pulls recent comparable sales and presents the seller with what they feel is a realistic list price, acknowledging that buyers will almost certainly offer below this. Sellers often have justification as to why their home is different (read: better) than the comparable homes and should be listed at a higher price.

"I can always lower the price later" they say, believing that buyers will be interested in working with a seller that has shown unrealistic expectations by listing it higher than it should have been in the first place. After the inevitable reduction doesn't work, they try a second time in order to get buyers attention.

The chase has begun. Unfortunately everybody involved in the marketing of this home has wasted precious time and the buyers that would have been happy to make an offer on an attractively priced home have moved on. The lesson ? If you are selling in a building that still has developer inventory you have lost the deal you could have had to the developer and probably more than once because you scared buyers away with the "my unit is special" price.

As I wrote last week; the sales offices are making incredible deals right now. One Mission Bay community has 2-bedrooms with parking from the high 500's. A South Beach community has put a unit in contract for 40% less than that homes twin sold for early last year.

In this environment, if you can't beat them, join them. Pricing a home aggressively when it hits the market is the only way to get buyers to pay attention. This is unwelcome news to those that put little or no money down on their condos and are now trying to sell. For these folks a short sale may be the best option for getting the property sold with the least impact to their credit scores.

For others that made more substantial down payments and want to sell, it may be time to bite the bullet and take the loss on what is already a depreciated asset. The bright side is that there is now an opportunity to purchase and take advantage of market declines and trade up.

No matter what your individual situation may be, I am happy to talk to you about marketing, selling and buying in our ever-changing real estate market. These are challenging times but we get to weather the storm in one of the most beautiful places in the world. That's a competition that all San Franciscans win.

Making lemonade from lemons: A window of opportunity opens for new construction buyers as developers say "Sell!"

2009-02-16T21:55:00.000-08:00

Trendy is as trendy does. When granite kitchen counter tops were introduced at The Brannan back in 2000, almost every new development that followed made it a standard feature. How about stainless steel appliances? Does anybody remember what we had before those? And don't get me started on Studio Becker cabinets! I love them; don't get me wrong. They are a beautiful, high quality product that I have in my own home, but they are everywhere.

It's safe to say that once a San Francisco developer discovers an attribute or amenity that sells units, he sticks with it--perhaps to the point where it gets a little banal.

There is one trend that I'm happy to report has spread to just about every new development in the City. I'm referring to slashed prices. With Radiance, BLU and Arterra announcing dramatic price cuts last week, it's safe to say that all new construction sales offices have awakened and smelled the coffee. It's a particularly strong brew this morning and it shows that developers now understand what it takes to move inventory in this market.

There is a method to the madness; it's not only about moving units. Over at The Infinity, developer Tishman Speyer wants to make certain they have at least 25% of Tower II in escrow before they start closings in April. That first closing triggers the start of operations for the Tower's HOA and the assessments for all the unsold homes must be paid for by the owner (Tishman). It's understandable that they would want decent sales velocity before committing to paying the dues for 300+ units at an average of $700 per month. Once they hit their target, will prices go up? It's anybody's guess where the market will be in spring.

The team at BLU has a similar strategy. Announcing aggressive new prices last week (2-bedrooms from $599K), their goal is to fulfill a presale requirement that, if missed, will delay closings until the magic number is reached. Their pain may be your gain when they achieve their goal and decide that demand is sufficient enough to begin ratcheting prices up.

It's important to remember that for a city the size of San Francisco, there isn't that much condominium inventory. With a population of almost 800,000 people there are approximately 600 new construction condominiums available Downtown. We don't have a sea of empty high-rises like in Miami or Las Vegas and with developers slashing prices and new construction at a standstill, this could be a golden moment to enjoy a tall, cool glass of lemonade.

Remember: The sales office works for the developer; I work for you. My knowledge and expertise will get you the best home at the best price, period.

A Tale of Twelve Offers. Yes, you read that correctly.

2009-02-09T21:48:00.000-08:00

The property has great curb appeal. There are tasteful and modern finishes throughout the modest two bedroom and 2 bath home yet the gracious vintage charm has been retained. A large, manicured back yard awaits a French Bulldog and there is a garage for the Prius. A convenient Sunnyside address seals the deal. My talented colleague reported that she received 12 offers on this property last week, 10 of which were very strong. Is this February 2009 or 2006 ?

The buyer and seller just went into contract so we won't know what the final price is until escrow closes but I speculate that it's not a huge run-up. So what does 12 offers on a single family home in San Francisco listed at $665,000 mean ?

To begin with, this price point represents a sweet spot for a lot of first time buyers in The City. If you factor in a 20% down payment of $125,000 that keeps the mortgage balance below the current conforming loan limit of $625,500 ensuring access to the best available interest rates. A single person or couple that have been saving, have good credit scores (above 700) and stable employment can easily qualify for the loan.

Now that we know the lending piece of the equation can be achieved by a lot of potential buyers in San Francisco, why so much demand for this one house in particular ? The location is close to both transit and shopping yet still has a classic neighborhood vibe. It's thoughtfully and tastefully updated (stainless steel appliances and original refinished hardwood floors). Then there's that yard, garage and fireplace. Any client looking for a single family home in San Francisco in this price range would be crazy to NOT put in an offer. This is an example of a perfect real estate storm: a fantastic home that fulfills multiple buyers criteria listed at a price considered reasonable to those interested. One lesson that can be gleaned from this example is that there are still plenty of qualified buyers out there just itching to find a place to call home. You can grab their attention by making sure your property shows at it's absolute best and by pricing it realistically. Living in the moment now pertains to real estate values, too. For a complimentary evaluation of your properties current value make sure to contact me.

Speaking of contacting me, My colleague Bernie Katzmann and I have just listed a beautiful Downtown loft. A three level, top floor historic conversion with 2-bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, penthouse den and huge roof deck with skyline views. Deeded parking and two deeded storage units round out this 1500 square foot Rincon Hill aerie. The address is 346 First Street #301 and we'll be open for tour today from 2:00 - 3:30 and again on Sunday from 2:00 - 4:00.

Stop by and say "Hi". It's an impressive home steps from everything Downtown and although we may not get twelve offers I'm keeping my fingers crossed !

Postcards from the edge: A brief snapshot of current resale activity at ten Downtown developments.

2009-02-02T20:05:00.000-08:00

We are taking a brief hiatus from the witty commentary and opinion you usually find here and are going to look at some cold, hard numbers. I chose ten new or newer condominium developments and pulled statistics from the MLS that communicate some very basic data on each building: How many resale units are for sale, what type of home it is (studio, one, two or three bedroom) and how many units are in the building overall? It's not a terribly scientific survey and I kept any pricing analysis out of it because I believe that the aforementioned criteria tell their own story. An asterisk after the building name denotes that new inventory is still available through the sales office.

If you have any questions about these numbers or would like more detailed information about current inventory and pricing please do not hesitate to contact me. Without further ado, The Numbers:

The Beacon

Two studios, five 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 12. Total units overall: 595.

The Metropolitan

Five 1-bedrooms and two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 7. Total units overall: 342.

Watermark

Five 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 6. Total overall: 136.

200 Brannan

One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 191.

The Brannan

Two 1-bedrooms, six 2-bedrooms and two 3-bedrooms.
Total units available: 10. Total units overall: 339.

The Potrero

One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 155.

The Hayes*

No resale units. Total units overall: 128.

Arterra*

No resale units. Total units overall: 269.

The Infinity*

One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).

One Rincon Hill*

One 1-bedroom and three 2-bedrooms.
Total resale units available: 4. Total units overall: 376.

Is that a high-rise or are you just happy to see me ? Infinity Tower II revealed !

2009-01-26T20:04:00.000-08:00

Last Friday I awoke to a foggy, rainy San Francisco day. Not ideal for my first visit to Tower II at the Infinity, but I was anxious to get a look at the sleek new 42-story cylinder and the views. My friend started our tour on the 25th floor. The floor plates are roughly the same as Tower I, starting with the A units at 9 o'clock and, moving in a clockwise rotation, to B, C, D and so forth. The new tower offers the same layouts but with slight adjustments to some of the kitchen and bath finishes; however, the top five floors have an upgraded appliance package and drool-worthy Poggenpohl kitchen cabinets from Germany.

The biggest change from Tower I is, of course, the view. The B plan feels as if its hovering high above the Embarcadero and will have no future obstructions. You cannot get any closer to the waterfront. The 1-bedroom C plan has a serene Bay outlook, but the unit with the biggest "wow factor" is the D plan. Tower I D plans still afford nice views but Tower II D's offer unobstructed, dead-on bay and bridge outlooks--far enough away from the bridge to appreciate its beauty and scale without the questionable feng shui of being right on top of it. Even on lower floors, this stack features views of the Hills Brothers terra cotta-roofed Lombardy Tower in the foreground and the bay and bridge beyond.

First closings are scheduled for April and prices appear to be in line with what the current market will bear (with likely a little room for negotiation). Contact me to schedule a tour and perhaps acquire one of these very special homes. Remember, I work for you; the Infinity sales team works for the developer!

There will always be more condominiums in the pipeline for Downtown San Francisco, but The Infinity's location and views will not be duplicated.

Millennium sees the writing on the wall and Obama gets sworn in on The Mall. Plus, Barbara Corcoran tells it like it is.

2009-01-19T19:42:00.000-08:00

While most developments in San Francisco started lowering prices in October and November of last year, the team at Millennium Tower has decided to join the party. They announced last week that prices were being cut by 15% across the board and took an unprecedented and most gracious step by extending the discount to their buyers already in contract. While this move undoubtedly promotes good will between those buyers and the developer, it is also a strategic maneuver that will enable appraisals to “pencil out” for the bank underwriting departments. It also encourages buyers who went into contract before the banking system collapse to close escrow instead of walking away from their deposits. But if you can afford $1,000+ a month in homeowner dues, you probably are not worried about coming up with enough dough to close escrow. The Millennium Team is counting on it.

In other news, the San Francisco Association of Realtors held its annual gala at The Intercontinental Hotel this past Thursday evening. I was proud that my company had two tables of our agents and brokers at the event. The highlight of the evening was the keynote speaker Barbara Corcoran, founder of the Corcoran Group (one of the most successful and prestigious real estate brokerages in New York City). Ms. Corcoran founded the company in the early 70's and successfully grew her organization during some of the worst economic crises of the past 40 years. One example: New York City nearly declared bankruptcy in 1975 and real estate values plunged 50% that year.

Corcoran's advice for getting through tough times and even thriving? In a nutshell: Ignore the media, take a well-deserved vacation, and then work on your business while everyone sits back and waits it out. Finally, have faith in America's power to innovate because you never know what’s coming around the corner.

Today's inauguration could not come soon enough.

Infinity Mania continues as BLU gets ready for it's close up

2009-01-13T09:32:00.000-08:00

I was surprised at the number of responses I received last week regarding sales at The Infinity's Tower II. It seems that most folks who follow the Downtown real estate market are going to base their opinions on its current health by how well the new release sells. Although I'd say that this is a pretty shaky method, if current traffic in the sales office is any indicator, it should be a bustling February. A, my wonderful friend on the Infinity sales team, barely had time to wolf down a sandwich for lunch today because he's been so busy with tours and following up with potential buyers. "Do you think it's pent up demand for the second tower?" I asked him. He replied that the people mobbing the office generally didn't even know about the new release! Whether or not these people are a gaggle of looky-loos or if they are in fact real buyers remains to be seen. I'll keep you posted and will report back on Infinity Tower II after my tour next week.

Another exciting Downtown unveiling is coming soon--one that may prove to be a formidable alternative to the developments on Harrison and Main Streets. BLU will unveil its public art installation this week as the finishing touches are being put on the slender, 21-story, saw-toothed beauty. The ladies of BLU told me that they should have three models ready to tour in a few weeks; landscaping and street furniture have been installed. One of the most extraordinary things about BLU is the setting. Unlike other parts of The City where there are still empty lots immediately adjacent to large developments, BLU is the last piece of the puzzle along this stretch of Folsom and that gives it an instant sense of place. As a buyer, it's also nice to know that what you see is what you get; the neighborhood and its amenities are already there. It's a great streetscape with three centuries of architecture in a single block.

Whether or not you are a buyer or just curious, I encourage you to visit these two very different--yet equally appealing--places to call home. Buyers in Downtown San Francisco have never had as many diverse and high quality choices as they do now. For your expert tour of these and other Downtown condominiums, please contact me.

The Market has 2 faces: The first release in Tower II at The Infinity is almost here ! Plus, Short Sales for beginners.

2009-01-06T09:46:00.000-08:00

The Infinity sales office is gearing up for the most anticipated release in recent memory with the Spear Street Tower scheduled to begin sales at the end of the month. In a quaint nod to the real estate market circa 2005, the sales team has devised a multi-tier priority list for getting dibs on the best units at the best prices. The Infinity has been marketing the Spear Street "tree tops" (low rise) building for a few weeks now, but the real buzz is around the new 42 story tower which is not only 5 stories higher than it's sibling but is located at the southeast corner of the complex allowing for more spectacular and permanent views. The developer Tishman Speyer had hoped to be sold out of the first tower by the time they released the second and I have it on good authority that there are approximately 30 units still available between the Main Street Tower and Tree Tops combined.

To get on the priority list for Tower II or to learn about some of the great deals available on the remaining inventory, please contact me.

At the other end of the real estate spectrum in San Francisco, there are people who went into contract and closed on units between late 2005 and late 2007 who may be finding themselves in a situation that was never thought possible Downtown. Many folks are "underwater" on their homes meaning that they owe more on the mortgage than the property is currently worth. This may not be a problem if they can afford the payments and are happy with their home and prepared to own it for another 3 to 5 years. But if those payments become unmanageable due to an upwards loan rate adjustment or job loss, it can mean that some hard decisions need to be made.

I'm currently working with a client who has found that the best solution for him is to conduct a bank approved short sale in order to dispose of what has become unwanted investment property. The short sale process allows for the sale of the home at a price that will not allow the owner to payoff the entire mortgage but will result in a sale that nets the bank a decent pay back and one less foreclosed property on the books. Another positive is that the seller's credit rating is not decimated as in the case of a foreclosure.

In the coming weeks I will report on the progress we make with our short sale as well as the quality of the cocktails at The Infinity Tower II Release Party.

2008 was the year we grew to hate. 2009 is going to be an interesting time...

2008-12-29T20:35:00.000-08:00

It's that time of year again, ladies and gentlemen. When we look back on the past year and review some of the ups and downs and make a few educated guesses about what the next 12 months will hold for Downtown real estate in San Francisco.

2008 was the year that the bubble started to slowly deflate downtown with sellers of both new and resale condominiums starting to reduce prices. Unfortunately for both, the investment banks fell en mass in September and it was too late. The majority of well qualified buyers found it difficult if not impossible to get a loan while banks ducked, covered and held on to their bailout money with hands clenched tight. Some developments did manage to post solid sales numbers in November by aggressively lowering their prices while most condominiums on the resale market sat alone at the dance in a corner while their corsages wilted.

Buyers in 2008 had an equally challenging year. It started out looking pretty optimistic with sales prices and values holding steady but quickly turned uncertain once Bear Stearns went under in March. After that all bets were off and you only bought if you absolutely had to or were getting a reasonable deal. If you were looking at new construction the developers didn't seem to get that the market was changing and they held firm on price. If you were shopping resales you encountered sellers that were listing their homes thinking that the days of double digit quarter on quarter price increases were still with us. By the time November rolled around sellers had either pulled their homes off the market and decided to rent or reduced their prices, only to discover that buyers were now too scared to jump in.

That brings us to today. Reflecting on what we have just discussed, let me posit some predictions for the market in 2009, yet to be born and full of hope:

Sellers will continue to encounter low consumer confidence in the face of corporate layoffs in the first quarter. Although the presidential inauguration and subsequent announcement of stimulus packages will help, its going to be tough out there. Sellers will have to be decisive in pricing to garner the most attention when they first hit the market. This also means their property will need to have it's game face on (staged decor or aggressively edited). Otherwise, buyers will go elsewhere. Homes priced and presented to sell will do just that.

Record low interest rates and banks compelled by the Fed to make loans will allow buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to jump in. With resale inventory relatively high and some new developments going on their third year of sales, this could turn out to be the best year to buy in San Francisco in a decade. There is little new construction in the pipeline which should keep values stable throughout the year and give buyers the confidence they need to write a check.

Peace and Prosperity to you and yours. I look forward to your business and referrals in 2009.

Ground is broken for The Transbay Transit Center, let's hope they can come up with a better name for it.

2008-12-15T23:29:00.000-08:00

In what was billed as the groundbreaking for the Transbay Transit Center last week; Mayor Newsom and several local notables turned over a few shovels full of ceremonial dirt to celebrate the start of what will become the temporary Transbay Terminal. Once the temporary terminal (Tempterm ?) is complete, demolition can begin on the old Terminal itself which has a neat quasi-deco style but clearly must go to make way for the glory that planners and developers have envisioned for the site.

Pundits and the media have been tossing around the phrase "The Grand Central of The West" to describe the new center and allude to how monumental this terminal, tower and elevated park will be not only in terms of steel and glass but to the future of Downtown San Francisco. It's sounds kind of funny to me because I grew up arriving in New York City from the Connecticut suburbs through Grand Central Terminal. A massive, dramatic city within a city, The Terminal is an ersatz Roman temple and one of the first developments in the country to employ the planning mode we refer to today as mixed-use back in 1913. Not only a train terminal, the complex boasts retail, commercial, residential and hotel space all of which is connected via underground walkways and tunnels. It is and was a triumph of modern engineering wrapped in marble, bronze and decorative Guastavino tiles. One of the reasons Grand Central is so iconic is that it's part of our collective American consciousness. The structures symbolic strength, scale and meaning are shorthand for the history, power and romance of New York itself. I like to think that this is understood by those that pass through it every day on their way to work and those that only know the building as Lex Luther's hideout in the movie Superman from 1978. Either way, it looks like San Francisco will finally have a center, a symbolic 'heart' where multiple modes of transportation will converge and people will gather. Not just to catch a train or bus, but to live, work and experience what it means to be Downtown in one of the greatest cities in the world.

Maybe there will be secret lair for Lex, too.

Don't fear the Reaper... November turns out to be a strong month for San Francisco's new development sales offices.

2008-12-09T09:31:00.000-08:00

A few weeks back I wrote about developers finally waking up to the realities of the current market in our fair city by pricing select chunks of their inventory at very attractive (reduced) prices. Attractive enough I thought, to spur some buying activity in what might be more politely termed a "freaked out" consumer environment. Well gentle readers, I'm happy to report that it seems to have worked. At developments across the city buyers have shunned the negative and accented the positive by putting roughly 10 units into contract at each of a handful of communities from Mission Bay to South Beach and back to the Van Ness corridor.

It is heartening to know that even during a period where federal bailouts are racking up scary hash marks on the billions spent spread sheet; buyers are confident enough in San Francisco's market to put their hard-earned money toward a downtown condo. Maybe it's a contrarian view that is driving these people toward a purchase that a lot of folks might run from right now but one thing is certain: these intrepid individuals are getting some great deals on prime property.

This happy occasion reminds of something that I've heard often in the real estate industry when things get challenging: People will always need to buy or sell, no matter what. This is essentially an elaboration on "Life goes on." People get transferred, lose jobs, get new ones, get married, have babies, etc. This continues to happen regardless of what the stock market does, who the president is, or if Britney Spears releases a new single.

So if you are delaying making a decision about whether to buy or sell property and its starting to have an impact on your quality of life, I recommend speaking with a professional. My contact information is on the banner at the top this page.

Healthcare is about the only bright spot in the American economy... So what does that mean for San Francisco?

2008-12-02T09:28:00.000-08:00

There is something extraordinary happening in our city. If it were occurring in any other US burg you would certainly have read about in the newspaper or seen something about it on TV. The Mayor would be talking about it endlessly and civic and community leaders would be promoting it at every turn. Maybe it's because the only equivalent situation is in Houston, Texas and San Franciscans would be loathe to be compared to that lovely yet very different city.

Maybe. But a better answer is that they just don't think its a big deal.

Mission Bay and the new UCSF biomedical campus are a very big deal. Although the second phase of Radiance at Mission Bay and 2 commercial buildings have been put on hold (the latter even had tenants signed up), new residential, research, university and biotechnology buildings continue to rise despite fiscal uncertainty and the general economic slow down.

You may ask, why ? Because this is where the future is being created.

The next big breakthroughs in medicine--be they genetics, robotics, protein science or something we can't even fathom yet-- are being researched in Mission Bay and will be discovered or evolve here. That very large building on the UCSF biomedical campus isn't named Genentech Hall for nothing. In less than 15 years there will be three new hospitals here treating women, children and cancer.

It is generally understood that our new president is going to repeal federal legislation that currently hinders stem cell research. This coupled with the synergy of biotechnology, research and health care will drive investment and innovation, bringing people to San Francisco from all over the world. In the future when someone needs a new heart, hand or head, they will most likely be booking tickets to SFO.

This all started about 10 years ago when the master plan for Mission Bay was approved by The City. The linchpin of this plan is The Beacon (initially known as Mission Place). Completed in 2004, it is home to condominiums, Safeway, Borders and a Burger Joint. It is also home to The California Center for Regenerative Medicine (CERM). A state ballot initiative created and funds the organization that has 3 billion dollars at its disposal and a mission to invest in biotechnology. It would be hard to duplicate the conditions that are driving this investment and development anywhere else. Put it all together and its pretty compelling: This new neighborhood is poised to be the global center for the next generation of biomedical and health care professionals.

It all sounds like exciting stuff, future stuff. But it's happening right now. If you want to see what the 21st century holds for San Francisco, take a drive or hop on the T line and head over to Mission Bay.

It might not look like much on the south side of Mission Creek right now aside from the great view, but people said the same thing about a little town called Yerba Buena in 1848.

If you live at The Infinity should you drive an Infiniti ? Observations on branding and consumer behavior.

2008-11-24T19:13:00.000-08:00

The San Francisco International Auto Show arrived in town this week and I spent a few hours there since I love cars and my current lease expires in a few weeks. It was great fun strolling among the vehicles and checking out the latest from both the Japanese and European manufacturers. I steered clear of the domestics not in principle but because there was not a single vehicle that pulled me in as I walked by. I felt like I had to stifle a yawn as I glanced over the giant FORD logo and looked to see what the next company offered. I wasn't alone.
Visitors scrambled into the seats of the Honda and Audi displays while the Buick's and Chrysler's gathered dust. The Big 3's financial predicaments certainly aren't helping their cause but I could not shake the sense that these brands had permanently turned a corner for the worse.

Could the same thing happen to a development ?

Sometimes I participate in meetings where we brainstorm names for new developments. Much like referring to the color light green as "celadon", choosing what to name a condominium is an exercise in perception management. The Beacon is still 250 and 260 King Street if the name is changed to The Bacon. Both names have connotations and associations, it's simply a matter of which ones you want potential buyers to think of. Some developments shed their brands after a few years if they are unwieldy or not particularly catchy. 88 King Street was marketed as The Towers at Embarcadero South. That mouthful has quietly faded and the buildings lucky address is now it's preferred name.

I don't think we will see any condominium Pintos or Edsels in San Francisco but there will almost always be a new development touting a sexy brand to lure buyers in with the promise of a new and better life in a new and better development.

I'm going to start my new and better life by getting a Volkswagon.

Short Sales, Foreclosures and Auctions, Oh My ! Buyers and Sellers alike require guidance in our rapidly evolving market.

2008-11-19T12:29:00.000-08:00

I'm working with a buyer right now that is under the impression that every seller is desperate to unload their property at fire sale prices. This (mistaken) belief resulted in a weak offer that was justified with a comparable sale that had been a foreclosure. The fact that there is a much better comparable (right next door) that was not in distress and closed a few months before seems inconsequential to him. Likely due to the 20% differential in sales price I reckon.

We are to lucky to live in an age where consumers have a vast amount of information at their finger tips. Unfortunately, many buyers and sellers are frustrated by information overload. Blogs, online brokers, TV, print media and cocktail party chatter all contribute to fevered speculation about the market and why you are either a sucker or a genius. Although not unique to the real estate industry, this phenomenon can prevent people from attaining their goals unless they exercise good judgement, keep an open mind and...hire an experienced real estate professional.

In other news, The Potrero held a sealed-bid "auction" this weekend for the 20 or so remaining units at the popular development. The available homes represent some less-than-ideal inventory, but also offer an enormous opportunity to purchase in a successful community in a desirable location. Come to think of it, submitting a sealed bid there would appeal to my buyer who is stuck on foreclosure comparables... excuse me while I make a phone call.

Turnberry goes Dutch with Rincon Hill tower; pass the test and you should consider living there.

2008-11-19T12:25:00.000-08:00

originally published 11/11/08

Fast on the heels of last week's announcement of the delay/cancellation of the second tower at One Rincon Hill, Turnberry LTD has made details public on the 50% equity sale of their planned 40 story tower located close to the intersection of Harrison and First Street.

The sale to a Miami-based investor should come as happy news amidst the relative gloom we've experienced Downtown. With excavation expected to begin in the first quarter of 2009, Turnberry and One Hawthorne will be the only "shovels-in-the-dirt" high rise residential projects in San Francisco. Will these buildings come on line just in time for the return of strong demand for condos Downtown ? Consult your oracle of choice...

Speaking of oracle's, my colleagues and I came up with a quick and fun way to determine if Downtown living is right for you (assuming you haven't already made this decision which I know some of you have). It's called the Herth Downtown Ten Point Lifestyle Test. If you answer 8 or more of the 10 questions in the affirmative, then you should include downtown properties in your new home search.

Herth Downtown's Ten Point Lifestyle Test:

1. Does condominium living appeal to you ?
2. Would you consider living in a Mid or High Rise development ?
3. Are you considering living in or near the city center?
4. Does new or recent construction interest you?
5. Would you like to live near your business, work or public transit yet not have to drive?
6. Are on-site amenities such as a doorman, concierge services, or fitness facilities important to you?
7. Would you like to live near your daily destinations such as grocery stores, retailers, or restaurants?
8. Is being close to cultural venues such as museums, live music, art galleries or theaters attractive ?
9. Are you interested in a low-maintenance "lock & leave" residence?
10. Is a wide price range and comparative value a priority ?

I hope that was fun and informative. If you are still on the fence, I can help you decide whether or not Downtown is right for you. If you now know that Downtown living is your thing, you can determine which developments will suit you best by contacting me.

I know of two that will be forming interest lists soon...

Elections & Downtown non-erections: Developers bearish on short-term outlook while agents hope post-election relief will get buyers back in the swing

2008-11-19T12:19:00.000-08:00

originally published 11/4/08

It hasn't been the most relaxing autumn with the culmination of a 3 year long presidential race and the worlds financial markets dancing an endless mambo. Added to these global and national headlines was last weeks more local announcement from the developer of One Rincon Hill that the much anticipated and delayed Tower 2 (T2) was on 'indefinite hold'. No matter where your opinion falls here it seemed to put the exclamation point on a week that many were waiting for. Several developers pulled their collective heads out of the sand and acknowledged that the San Francisco condominium market has changed for the foreseeable future and that moving product right now is a priority.

Some examples: The Hayes has a fifth floor studio with balcony listed in the mid 300's and a tower-level 1-bedroom at Arterra in Mission Bay was re-priced in the low 500's. Over on Van Ness Avenue, Symphony Towers has a 1-bedroom on offer in the mid-400's. These prices represent reductions of at least $100,000 from their previous highs and what's more compelling is they seem to work. Erin over at Symphony told me they sold 6 units last week after the price drop.

Reductions in inventory and markdowns on stock indicate that developers are retooling strategy for what they see as a prolonged slowing of demand and it seems like if the price is right one can still sell a condominium even in these uncertain times.

The return of confidence to the country and San Francisco will go a long way in allowing home buyers to feel good about getting back in the market. With the impending change in leadership and recent condominium price adjustments this may be a historic moment in more ways than one.

Does 'P' stand for 'Panic' or 'Patient' ? Perplexed prospects ponder proliferation of plum new listings proffered Downtown.

2008-11-19T12:11:00.000-08:00

originally published 10/21/08

About 3 weeks ago I was trying to arrange evening cocktails with a good friend whose schedule was suddenly very full. "So your booked every night this week and can't commit to anything next week, what gives ?" I asked in a loving yet annoyed way that I'm told only I can do. He replied, "We are swamped, oiy.... I've haven't been this busy in a year."

My dear friend you see, is a very talented and currently in-demand stager. At first I thought it was odd timing given that if a sale occurred within 60 days these sellers would presumably be moving during the holidays. Not much thought went into this seemingly off timing again until I went on tour downtown today and was surprised by how many new listings there were and by the eye-popping asking prices.

Some examples:

A freshly listed corner 2-bedroom at The Brannan on a higher floor with a spectacular view, approximately 1300 square feet. 1.8M. Hm.

A top floor view 2/2 with a large balcony in a mid-rise on Rincon Hill clocking in at 1200 square feet. 1.425M. Oog.

An impressive and new-to-the-market 3-bedroom 3.5 bath corner loft at 200 Brannan. At least 1700 square feet. 3.388M. Whoa.

What put my visit to these lovely homes in perspective was my first stop that day at The Beacon. A friend and former colleague has the listing for a corner 2/2 on the top floor with a balcony. It's a lovely spot with forever views that was sold 2 years ago by the developer for 1.25M. A price that was considered a good value at the time.
It's 3 days away from foreclosure unless the seller gets it in contract as a short sale. 1250 square feet and asking... 999K

That leaves us with 4 high-end condominiums being marketed against a backdrop where potential buyers are looking for value and opportunity and sellers seem to want to cash out or just get out. Even if the sellers are 'testing the market' one has to wonder about the motivation and timing of that decision.

What's important to understand for agents and buyers navigating this market is that these mixed messages are a symptom of the general confusion and apprehension about what the future holds for our economy. As with all situations where the outcome isn't predictable there are great opportunities for those that are confident and maybe a little fearless.

Now about that cocktail...

You can hear a pin drop: Downtown condo sales centers quiet in wake of roller coaster global markets.

2008-11-19T12:05:00.000-08:00

originally published 10/15/08

Escorting a client Downtown to tour models and sales centers is always a pleasure for me. It gives me the chance to get to know my client better, browse available inventory and catch up with friends and colleagues. During recent tours it was clear that my client was the only potential customer in the store which made for lots of attention from the staff and a slightly eerie feeling.
It doesn't look like the number of visitors to sales offices will increase any time soon unless developers and marketing companies get creative.

Traffic has slowed to a trickle in most new construction sales offices in San Francisco. A trend that began about a year and a half ago has gained momentum with roiling global markets giving even well-heeled buyers reason to wonder if now is the best time to buy. A colleague told me earlier this week that she had 4 visitors to her Downtown sales office in the past 10 days.

So what can be done to get more people up into the model homes ooohing and aaahing over the view ?

Signature cocktails, themed events, and 'Meet the Architect' wine and cheese soiree's have culminated more recently with one very nice Downtown development allowing potential buyers to spend the night in a model home to get the full living experience. Including, it would seem, putting your feet up on the Eileen Gray coffee table, having the concierge arrange
a night on the town and testing that fancy shower head from Waterworks.
There are some developers that have gone so far as to increase commissions to 4% and even lower prices. Yes, hell has frozen over.

While we all hold our collective breath in anticipation of election results and if the funds being pumped into our financial system have a positive impact; buyers have never had developers as motivated to move product as they do now. These are strange times indeed and even stranger are the fantastic opportunities for buyers and sellers right now.

The trick is convincing my client that being the only one in the sales center is a good thing.

Downtown inventory absorbing at a slow yet steady pace. Developers hustle to move product with the outlook uncertain.

2008-11-19T11:53:00.000-08:00

Originally published 10/7/08

Monday brought a new client and a new mandate: a 1-bedroom condominium with a view that's also within walking distance of the CalTrans station on 4th. As I put our tour together for the morning I realized that something I didn't anticipate had happened in Mission Bay. Inventory that was piling up until about a month ago was, for the most part, gone. The Beacon had only 14 listings, about 2.5% of the building's units, were active on the MLS. Six months ago, that number was almost double. The Beacon sold out in 2006 as a condominium conversion. After checking in with the sales team at 170 Off Third, I was told that they are sold out of studio and 1-beds and have but a handful of 2-beds left. Jessica at the Potrero had a similar story: Just two 1-bedrooms available out of only 11 left overall.

A little far from the train station but under consideration was The Metropolitan. It is great place to find value and competition among sellers for nicely finished units with views. Bonus points for the building since it still looks fresh and appealing 4 years after completion. There I found only one 1-bedroom; a high floor with a nice view. One 1-bedroom available out of 342 units. Hm. Given the above there was only one place to go for new product that shows well and is reasonably priced: Arterra.

My client and I looked at a handful of 1-bedroom's and the sales team seemed open to writing creative deals. With a reported 40% of the building yet to be sold, we had a wide selection of homes and developer incentives to consider. A perfect storm for today's selective and value-conscious buyer.

It will be interesting to see where these numbers move in light of all the drama we've endured in the past few weeks. There are many challenges in the business of real estate in late 2008 yet there are still people making deals, getting loans and closing escrow in San Francisco.