Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Downtown inventory absorbing at a slow yet steady pace. Developers hustle to move product with the outlook uncertain.

Originally published 10/7/08 

Monday brought a new client and a new mandate: a 1-bedroom condominium with a view that's also within walking distance of the CalTrans station on 4th. As I put our tour together for the morning I realized that something I didn't anticipate had happened in Mission Bay. Inventory that was piling up until about a month ago was, for the most part, gone. The Beacon had only 14 listings, about 2.5% of the building's units, were active on the MLS. Six months ago, that number was almost double. The Beacon sold out in 2006 as a condominium conversion. After checking in with the sales team at 170 Off Third, I was told that they are sold out of studio and 1-beds and have but a handful of 2-beds left. Jessica at the Potrero had a similar story: Just two 1-bedrooms available out of only 11 left overall.

A little far from the train station but under consideration was The Metropolitan. It is great place to find value and competition among sellers for nicely finished units with views. Bonus points for the building since it still looks fresh and appealing 4 years after completion. There I found only one 1-bedroom; a high floor with a nice view. One 1-bedroom available out of 342 units. Hm.
Given the above there was only one place to go for new product that shows well and is reasonably priced: Arterra.

My client and I looked at a handful of 1-bedroom's and the sales team seemed open to writing creative deals. With a reported 40% of the building yet to be sold, we had a wide selection of homes and developer incentives to consider. A perfect storm for today's selective and value-conscious buyer.

It will be interesting to see where these numbers move in light of all the drama we've endured in the past few weeks. There are many challenges in the business of real estate in late 2008 yet there are still people making deals, getting loans and closing escrow in San Francisco.

No comments: