Infinity Mania continues as BLU gets ready for it's close up

I was surprised at the number of responses I received last week regarding sales at The Infinity's Tower II. It seems that most folks who follow the Downtown real estate market are going to base their opinions on its current health by how well the new release sells. Although I'd say that this is a pretty shaky method, if current traffic in the sales office is any indicator, it should be a bustling February. A, my wonderful friend on the Infinity sales team, barely had time to wolf down a sandwich for lunch today because he's been so busy with tours and following up with potential buyers. "Do you think it's pent up demand for the second tower?" I asked him. He replied that the people mobbing the office generally didn't even know about the new release! Whether or not these people are a gaggle of looky-loos or if they are in fact real buyers remains to be seen. I'll keep you posted and will report back on Infinity Tower II after my tour next week.

Another exciting Downtown unveiling is coming soon--one that may prove to be a formidable alternative to the developments on Harrison and Main Streets. BLU will unveil its public art installation this week as the finishing touches are being put on the slender, 21-story, saw-toothed beauty. The ladies of BLU told me that they should have three models ready to tour in a few weeks; landscaping and street furniture have been installed. One of the most extraordinary things about BLU is the setting. Unlike other parts of The City where there are still empty lots immediately adjacent to large developments, BLU is the last piece of the puzzle along this stretch of Folsom and that gives it an instant sense of place. As a buyer, it's also nice to know that what you see is what you get; the neighborhood and its amenities are already there. It's a great streetscape with three centuries of architecture in a single block.

Whether or not you are a buyer or just curious, I encourage you to visit these two very different--yet equally appealing--places to call home. Buyers in Downtown San Francisco have never had as many diverse and high quality choices as they do now. For your expert tour of these and other Downtown condominiums, please contact me.

The Market has 2 faces: The first release in Tower II at The Infinity is almost here ! Plus, Short Sales for beginners.

The Infinity sales office is gearing up for the most anticipated release in recent memory with the Spear Street Tower scheduled to begin sales at the end of the month. In a quaint nod to the real estate market circa 2005, the sales team has devised a multi-tier priority list for getting dibs on the best units at the best prices. The Infinity has been marketing the Spear Street "tree tops" (low rise) building for a few weeks now, but the real buzz is around the new 42 story tower which is not only 5 stories higher than it's sibling but is located at the southeast corner of the complex allowing for more spectacular and permanent views. The developer Tishman Speyer had hoped to be sold out of the first tower by the time they released the second and I have it on good authority that there are approximately 30 units still available between the Main Street Tower and Tree Tops combined.

To get on the priority list for Tower II or to learn about some of the great deals available on the remaining inventory, please contact me.

At the other end of the real estate spectrum in San Francisco, there are people who went into contract and closed on units between late 2005 and late 2007 who may be finding themselves in a situation that was never thought possible Downtown. Many folks are "underwater" on their homes meaning that they owe more on the mortgage than the property is currently worth. This may not be a problem if they can afford the payments and are happy with their home and prepared to own it for another 3 to 5 years. But if those payments become unmanageable due to an upwards loan rate adjustment or job loss, it can mean that some hard decisions need to be made.

I'm currently working with a client who has found that the best solution for him is to conduct a bank approved short sale in order to dispose of what has become unwanted investment property. The short sale process allows for the sale of the home at a price that will not allow the owner to payoff the entire mortgage but will result in a sale that nets the bank a decent pay back and one less foreclosed property on the books. Another positive is that the seller's credit rating is not decimated as in the case of a foreclosure.

In the coming weeks I will report on the progress we make with our short sale as well as the quality of the cocktails at The Infinity Tower II Release Party.

2008 was the year we grew to hate. 2009 is going to be an interesting time...

It's that time of year again, ladies and gentlemen. When we look back on the past year and review some of the ups and downs and make a few educated guesses about what the next 12 months will hold for Downtown real estate in San Francisco.

2008 was the year that the bubble started to slowly deflate downtown with sellers of both new and resale condominiums starting to reduce prices. Unfortunately for both, the investment banks fell en mass in September and it was too late. The majority of well qualified buyers found it difficult if not impossible to get a loan while banks ducked, covered and held on to their bailout money with hands clenched tight. Some developments did manage to post solid sales numbers in November by aggressively lowering their prices while most condominiums on the resale market sat alone at the dance in a corner while their corsages wilted.

Buyers in 2008 had an equally challenging year. It started out looking pretty optimistic with sales prices and values holding steady but quickly turned uncertain once Bear Stearns went under in March. After that all bets were off and you only bought if you absolutely had to or were getting a reasonable deal. If you were looking at new construction the developers didn't seem to get that the market was changing and they held firm on price. If you were shopping resales you encountered sellers that were listing their homes thinking that the days of double digit quarter on quarter price increases were still with us. By the time November rolled around sellers had either pulled their homes off the market and decided to rent or reduced their prices, only to discover that buyers were now too scared to jump in.

That brings us to today. Reflecting on what we have just discussed, let me posit some predictions for the market in 2009, yet to be born and full of hope:

Sellers will continue to encounter low consumer confidence in the face of corporate layoffs in the first quarter. Although the presidential inauguration and subsequent announcement of stimulus packages will help, its going to be tough out there. Sellers will have to be decisive in pricing to garner the most attention when they first hit the market. This also means their property will need to have it's game face on (staged decor or aggressively edited). Otherwise, buyers will go elsewhere. Homes priced and presented to sell will do just that.

Record low interest rates and banks compelled by the Fed to make loans will allow buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to jump in. With resale inventory relatively high and some new developments going on their third year of sales, this could turn out to be the best year to buy in San Francisco in a decade. There is little new construction in the pipeline which should keep values stable throughout the year and give buyers the confidence they need to write a check.

Peace and Prosperity to you and yours. I look forward to your business and referrals in 2009.

Ground is broken for The Transbay Transit Center, let's hope they can come up with a better name for it.

In what was billed as the groundbreaking for the Transbay Transit Center last week; Mayor Newsom and several local notables turned over a few shovels full of ceremonial dirt to celebrate the start of what will become the temporary Transbay Terminal. Once the temporary terminal (Tempterm ?) is complete, demolition can begin on the old Terminal itself which has a neat quasi-deco style but clearly must go to make way for the glory that planners and developers have envisioned for the site.

Pundits and the media have been tossing around the phrase "The Grand Central of The West" to describe the new center and allude to how monumental this terminal, tower and elevated park will be not only in terms of steel and glass but to the future of Downtown San Francisco. It's sounds kind of funny to me because I grew up arriving in New York City from the Connecticut suburbs through Grand Central Terminal. A massive, dramatic city within a city, The Terminal is an ersatz Roman temple and one of the first developments in the country to employ the planning mode we refer to today as mixed-use back in 1913. Not only a train terminal, the complex boasts retail, commercial, residential and hotel space all of which is connected via underground walkways and tunnels. It is and was a triumph of modern engineering wrapped in marble, bronze and decorative Guastavino tiles. One of the reasons Grand Central is so iconic is that it's part of our collective American consciousness. The structures symbolic strength, scale and meaning are shorthand for the history, power and romance of New York itself. I like to think that this is understood by those that pass through it every day on their way to work and those that only know the building as Lex Luther's hideout in the movie Superman from 1978. Either way, it looks like San Francisco will finally have a center, a symbolic 'heart' where multiple modes of transportation will converge and people will gather. Not just to catch a train or bus, but to live, work and experience what it means to be Downtown in one of the greatest cities in the world.

Maybe there will be secret lair for Lex, too.

Don't fear the Reaper... November turns out to be a strong month for San Francisco's new development sales offices.

A few weeks back I wrote about developers finally waking up to the realities of the current market in our fair city by pricing select chunks of their inventory at very attractive (reduced) prices. Attractive enough I thought, to spur some buying activity in what might be more politely termed a "freaked out" consumer environment. Well gentle readers, I'm happy to report that it seems to have worked. At developments across the city buyers have shunned the negative and accented the positive by putting roughly 10 units into contract at each of a handful of communities from Mission Bay to South Beach and back to the Van Ness corridor.

It is heartening to know that even during a period where federal bailouts are racking up scary hash marks on the billions spent spread sheet; buyers are confident enough in San Francisco's market to put their hard-earned money toward a downtown condo. Maybe it's a contrarian view that is driving these people toward a purchase that a lot of folks might run from right now but one thing is certain: these intrepid individuals are getting some great deals on prime property.

This happy occasion reminds of something that I've heard often in the real estate industry when things get challenging: People will always need to buy or sell, no matter what. This is essentially an elaboration on "Life goes on." People get transferred, lose jobs, get new ones, get married, have babies, etc. This continues to happen regardless of what the stock market does, who the president is, or if Britney Spears releases a new single.

So if you are delaying making a decision about whether to buy or sell property and its starting to have an impact on your quality of life, I recommend speaking with a professional. My contact information is on the banner at the top this page.

Healthcare is about the only bright spot in the American economy... So what does that mean for San Francisco?

There is something extraordinary happening in our city. If it were occurring in any other US burg you would certainly have read about in the newspaper or seen something about it on TV. The Mayor would be talking about it endlessly and civic and community leaders would be promoting it at every turn. Maybe it's because the only equivalent situation is in Houston, Texas and San Franciscans would be loathe to be compared to that lovely yet very different city.

Maybe. But a better answer is that they just don't think its a big deal.

Mission Bay and the new UCSF biomedical campus are a very big deal. Although the second phase of Radiance at Mission Bay and 2 commercial buildings have been put on hold (the latter even had tenants signed up), new residential, research, university and biotechnology buildings continue to rise despite fiscal uncertainty and the general economic slow down.

You may ask, why ? Because this is where the future is being created.

The next big breakthroughs in medicine--be they genetics, robotics, protein science or something we can't even fathom yet-- are being researched in Mission Bay and will be discovered or evolve here. That very large building on the UCSF biomedical campus isn't named Genentech Hall for nothing. In less than 15 years there will be three new hospitals here treating women, children and cancer.

It is generally understood that our new president is going to repeal federal legislation that currently hinders stem cell research. This coupled with the synergy of biotechnology, research and health care will drive investment and innovation, bringing people to San Francisco from all over the world. In the future when someone needs a new heart, hand or head, they will most likely be booking tickets to SFO.

This all started about 10 years ago when the master plan for Mission Bay was approved by The City. The linchpin of this plan is The Beacon (initially known as Mission Place). Completed in 2004, it is home to condominiums, Safeway, Borders and a Burger Joint. It is also home to The California Center for Regenerative Medicine (CERM). A state ballot initiative created and funds the organization that has 3 billion dollars at its disposal and a mission to invest in biotechnology. It would be hard to duplicate the conditions that are driving this investment and development anywhere else. Put it all together and its pretty compelling: This new neighborhood is poised to be the global center for the next generation of biomedical and health care professionals.

It all sounds like exciting stuff, future stuff. But it's happening right now. If you want to see what the 21st century holds for San Francisco, take a drive or hop on the T line and head over to Mission Bay.

It might not look like much on the south side of Mission Creek right now aside from the great view, but people said the same thing about a little town called Yerba Buena in 1848.

If you live at The Infinity should you drive an Infiniti ? Observations on branding and consumer behavior.

The San Francisco International Auto Show arrived in town this week and I spent a few hours there since I love cars and my current lease expires in a few weeks. It was great fun strolling among the vehicles and checking out the latest from both the Japanese and European manufacturers. I steered clear of the domestics not in principle but because there was not a single vehicle that pulled me in as I walked by. I felt like I had to stifle a yawn as I glanced over the giant FORD logo and looked to see what the next company offered. I wasn't alone.
Visitors scrambled into the seats of the Honda and Audi displays while the Buick's and Chrysler's gathered dust. The Big 3's financial predicaments certainly aren't helping their cause but I could not shake the sense that these brands had permanently turned a corner for the worse.

Could the same thing happen to a development ?

Sometimes I participate in meetings where we brainstorm names for new developments. Much like referring to the color light green as "celadon", choosing what to name a condominium is an exercise in perception management. The Beacon is still 250 and 260 King Street if the name is changed to The Bacon. Both names have connotations and associations, it's simply a matter of which ones you want potential buyers to think of. Some developments shed their brands after a few years if they are unwieldy or not particularly catchy. 88 King Street was marketed as The Towers at Embarcadero South. That mouthful has quietly faded and the buildings lucky address is now it's preferred name.

I don't think we will see any condominium Pintos or Edsels in San Francisco but there will almost always be a new development touting a sexy brand to lure buyers in with the promise of a new and better life in a new and better development.

I'm going to start my new and better life by getting a Volkswagon.