It was November 10th when we last looked at the sampler. With the holidays behind us and the late winter/early spring bump in inventory and sales, there are some interesting changes to the Downtown sales landscape. Arterra is rumored to be sold out within the week and The Infinity has but 15 units remaining. The impending sellout at the Main and Spear Street complex has motivated some owners to list their homes; and at aggressive prices. Time will tell what the market will bear, but the fact remains that overall inventory is low and buyer interest is high. Off to the races...
The Beacon
Six 1-bedrooms, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 8. Total units: 595.
The Metropolitan
One 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 3. Total units: 342.
Watermark
No resale activity. Total units: 136.
200 Brannan
One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 191.
The Brannan
Four 1-bedrooms, Five 2-bedrooms. Available units: 9. Total units: 339.
The Potrero
One 1-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 155
The Hayes
No resale inventory. Total units: 128
Arterra *
No resale inventory. Total units: 269
The Infinity *
Four 2-bedrooms. Available units: 4. Total units: 650
One Rincon Hill *
Three 1-bedrooms and Six 2-bedrooms. Available units: 9. Total units overall: 376.
* New inventory still available from the developer.
Showing posts with label One Rincon Hill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label One Rincon Hill. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Monday, November 23, 2009
Five Things To Be Thankful For This Thanksgiving 2009
Chances are that if you are reading this you likely have your basic needs as a human being covered. Food, shelter and enough money to have some control of your life and take care of your loved ones. Something to be thankful for, indeed. My list of five things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving could be interpreted as shallow. But lets face it: I'm a real estate agent and I write about real estate, and we are fortunate here in San Francisco as far as that topic is concerned. Don't believe me ? Read on...
1.) Extended and expanded federal home buyer tax credits for 2010.
Its estimated that 40% of new home buyers in 2009 moved forward with their transactions because of the state and federal tax credits that were offered. I don't know what the percentage of buyers in San Francisco is that would make that claim, but increased transaction volume bodes well for the market and boosts confidence on a national, state and local level.
2.) Inventory is down and there's not much in the pipeline.
I've said it before, but it bears repeating: Only one high rise development will open for sales Downtown in 2010. One Hawthorne will add 165 units to Downtown inventory amidst a market that will have absorbed almost all other units.
The Infinity, Arterra, BLU, and One Rincon are all starting to scrape the barrel with approximately 140 units available amongst the four.
3.) Mortgage money is still cheap.
The process of getting a mortgage may be more onerous than it once was, and it certainly takes longer for transactions to close due to a finicky and seemingly arbitrary underwriting process, but interest rates are still REALLY low. All the folks buying in 2009 know that and I'm confident we will have good rates available in the near future.
4.) Low inventory + demand = a more balanced market.
Buyers had it made in '09. If you had good credit and a reasonable down payment the world was your oyster in terms of purchasing a condominium Downtown. Sellers of both new and resale properties got realistic and starting making deals happen that established a new 'normal' for value based on the pros and con's of the property itself and not the dream of quick and easy equity. With inventory drying up, I predict a more balanced market between sellers and buyers than was possible in '09.
5.) You. Are. Here.
I don't want to put down other cities because that would be rude. But let's be real. Whether you own or rent, want to buy or sell, you probably live in San Francisco. It can be a maddening, annoying, frustrating place. Yet at the end of the day we live in a city that people from all over the world come to visit for just a few days and then go back to their dreary 'burgs, 'hams and 'villes. Remember that when you dig into that turkey, tofurkey or whatever else you'll be feasting on this Thursday.
1.) Extended and expanded federal home buyer tax credits for 2010.
Its estimated that 40% of new home buyers in 2009 moved forward with their transactions because of the state and federal tax credits that were offered. I don't know what the percentage of buyers in San Francisco is that would make that claim, but increased transaction volume bodes well for the market and boosts confidence on a national, state and local level.
2.) Inventory is down and there's not much in the pipeline.
I've said it before, but it bears repeating: Only one high rise development will open for sales Downtown in 2010. One Hawthorne will add 165 units to Downtown inventory amidst a market that will have absorbed almost all other units.
The Infinity, Arterra, BLU, and One Rincon are all starting to scrape the barrel with approximately 140 units available amongst the four.
3.) Mortgage money is still cheap.
The process of getting a mortgage may be more onerous than it once was, and it certainly takes longer for transactions to close due to a finicky and seemingly arbitrary underwriting process, but interest rates are still REALLY low. All the folks buying in 2009 know that and I'm confident we will have good rates available in the near future.
4.) Low inventory + demand = a more balanced market.
Buyers had it made in '09. If you had good credit and a reasonable down payment the world was your oyster in terms of purchasing a condominium Downtown. Sellers of both new and resale properties got realistic and starting making deals happen that established a new 'normal' for value based on the pros and con's of the property itself and not the dream of quick and easy equity. With inventory drying up, I predict a more balanced market between sellers and buyers than was possible in '09.
5.) You. Are. Here.
I don't want to put down other cities because that would be rude. But let's be real. Whether you own or rent, want to buy or sell, you probably live in San Francisco. It can be a maddening, annoying, frustrating place. Yet at the end of the day we live in a city that people from all over the world come to visit for just a few days and then go back to their dreary 'burgs, 'hams and 'villes. Remember that when you dig into that turkey, tofurkey or whatever else you'll be feasting on this Thursday.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Downtown Inventory Sampler: What's That Sucking Sound ???
It was August 25th when we last visited our ten pet developments. Summer was winding down and resale inventory was low, due to a busy summer buying season this year. Properties that did not sell were taken off the market and sellers who had waited to list were preparing to put their properties up for sale for the beginning of the fourth quarter. Typically, the last active time of year for sales before the holidays and winter rain.
The Fall inventory bump materialized as expected and resale absorption was very respectable. The numbers indicate that sellers got more realistic about price and buyers found the confidence to move forward. The difference between then and now ? 200 Brannan had seven active listings on August 25th, today they have one. The Metropolitan had eleven, now six. That sucking sound I referred to above ? That's new and resale inventory being Hoovered away...
The Beacon
One studio, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 8. Total units: 595.
The Metropolitan
Three 1-bedrooms, two 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 6. Total units: 342.
Watermark
No resale activity. Total units: 136.
200 Brannan
One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 191.
The Brannan
One 1-bedroom, Four 2-bedrooms. Available units: 5. Total units: 339.
The Potrero
One studio, One 1-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 155
The Hayes
No resale inventory. Total units: 128
Arterra *
One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 269.
The Infinity *
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 650.
One Rincon Hill *
Two 1-bedrooms and Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 4. Total units overall: 376.
* New inventory still available from the developer.
The Fall inventory bump materialized as expected and resale absorption was very respectable. The numbers indicate that sellers got more realistic about price and buyers found the confidence to move forward. The difference between then and now ? 200 Brannan had seven active listings on August 25th, today they have one. The Metropolitan had eleven, now six. That sucking sound I referred to above ? That's new and resale inventory being Hoovered away...
The Beacon
One studio, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 8. Total units: 595.
The Metropolitan
Three 1-bedrooms, two 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 6. Total units: 342.
Watermark
No resale activity. Total units: 136.
200 Brannan
One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 191.
The Brannan
One 1-bedroom, Four 2-bedrooms. Available units: 5. Total units: 339.
The Potrero
One studio, One 1-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 155
The Hayes
No resale inventory. Total units: 128
Arterra *
One 2-bedroom. Available units: 1. Total units: 269.
The Infinity *
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 650.
One Rincon Hill *
Two 1-bedrooms and Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 4. Total units overall: 376.
* New inventory still available from the developer.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
53rd Floor Designer Show Homes at One Rincon Hill: Fancy, Frivolous, For Sale!
If you want to see how a bland builder box can be transformed into a comfortable custom condominium, you should pay a visit to One Rincon Hill and drop 20 clams on a ticket to the "Design Above All" show homes. The designers started with the standard floor plans and finishes in the four units on the 53rd floor and created bespoke interiors for each; tailored to four imaginary clients with different tastes and priorities.
Some designers tweaked the floor plans slightly to improve flow or change the use of a room, while others took it further and painted the kitchen and bath cabinetry and replaced the the standard granite counter tops with a more neutral selection. Like most show homes, these were a bit too crammed with furniture and accessories (with the exception of the Google Guy's 01 stack pad) but did present how one can create a warm and unique environment that feels like a home 600 feet above Rincon Hill.
Although most Downtown dwelling San Franciscans are not going to spend $100,000 on furnishings and custom work, these events are brilliant for picking up decorating ideas and inspiration. My favorite ? The sofa upholstered with cork.
Not to be upstaged, Millennium Tower is hosting "Icons of Design" for the next four weekends, showcasing the work of 25 Bay Area designers on their 52nd floor.
It looks like this high rise living concept is catching on in San Francisco...
Some designers tweaked the floor plans slightly to improve flow or change the use of a room, while others took it further and painted the kitchen and bath cabinetry and replaced the the standard granite counter tops with a more neutral selection. Like most show homes, these were a bit too crammed with furniture and accessories (with the exception of the Google Guy's 01 stack pad) but did present how one can create a warm and unique environment that feels like a home 600 feet above Rincon Hill.
Although most Downtown dwelling San Franciscans are not going to spend $100,000 on furnishings and custom work, these events are brilliant for picking up decorating ideas and inspiration. My favorite ? The sofa upholstered with cork.
Not to be upstaged, Millennium Tower is hosting "Icons of Design" for the next four weekends, showcasing the work of 25 Bay Area designers on their 52nd floor.
It looks like this high rise living concept is catching on in San Francisco...
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Just 60 out of 650 Still Available at The Infinity; Last of The Best Downtown Homes For At Least a Decade.
The Infinity team held a broker appreciation event in the spectacular unit 41B last night. As we sipped Champagne and nibbled canapes, Carl Shannon of developer Tishman Speyer congratulated the crowd on their astounding success in coming close to selling out one of San Francisco's best developments in the most challenging market in memory.
Mr. Shannon reminded us of something that will sound familiar to my regular readers: In the next 12 months there will be only 165 new units added to downtown inventory. After that there are no condominium developments set to break ground, period. This means that if a buyer wants a new high rise condominium, they have the best pricing and selection for years to come right now.
BLU, One Rincon and The Infinity are steadily moving their remaining homes. Discounts from list are the norm and my knowledge and expertise will afford you an incredible value. After One Hawthorn launches in early summer with 165 units you can quote Bugs Bunny by saying, "That's All, Folks."
If you or someone you know has contemplated a purchase Downtown, I highly recommend contacting me. Once this inventory is absorbed, selection will be limited to resales and prices, dare I say, may be higher for what will then be a very limited supply.
Mr. Shannon reminded us of something that will sound familiar to my regular readers: In the next 12 months there will be only 165 new units added to downtown inventory. After that there are no condominium developments set to break ground, period. This means that if a buyer wants a new high rise condominium, they have the best pricing and selection for years to come right now.
BLU, One Rincon and The Infinity are steadily moving their remaining homes. Discounts from list are the norm and my knowledge and expertise will afford you an incredible value. After One Hawthorn launches in early summer with 165 units you can quote Bugs Bunny by saying, "That's All, Folks."
If you or someone you know has contemplated a purchase Downtown, I highly recommend contacting me. Once this inventory is absorbed, selection will be limited to resales and prices, dare I say, may be higher for what will then be a very limited supply.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Downtown Inventory Sampler: Back-To-School Special
It was July 7th when we last visited our ten pet developments. Summer was just kicking off and now, sadly the season is almost over. But this isn't Nantasket nor Nantucket. Any San Franciscan worth their salt knows that September and October are the warmest and sunniest months of the entire year. The best is yet to come.
Inventory in San Francisco is typically low in August with summer buyers completing transactions and vacations taking priority for others. The numbers below seem to bear that out with the anticipated September inventory bump right around the corner.
The Beacon
Three studios, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedroom. Available units: 10. Total units: 595.
The Metropolitan
Six 1-bedroom, four 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 11. Total units: 342.
Watermark
One 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 136.
200 Brannan
One 1-bedroom, Five 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 7. Total units: 191.
The Brannan
Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 2. Total units: 339.
The Potrero
No resale inventory. Total units: 155
The Hayes
No resale inventory. Total units: 128
Arterra *
No resale inventory. Total units: 269.
The Infinity *
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
Two 1-bedroom and One 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units overall: 376.
* New inventory still available from the developer.
Inventory in San Francisco is typically low in August with summer buyers completing transactions and vacations taking priority for others. The numbers below seem to bear that out with the anticipated September inventory bump right around the corner.
The Beacon
Three studios, five 1-bedroom, two 2-bedroom. Available units: 10. Total units: 595.
The Metropolitan
Six 1-bedroom, four 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 11. Total units: 342.
Watermark
One 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 136.
200 Brannan
One 1-bedroom, Five 2-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Available units: 7. Total units: 191.
The Brannan
Two 2-bedrooms. Available units: 2. Total units: 339.
The Potrero
No resale inventory. Total units: 155
The Hayes
No resale inventory. Total units: 128
Arterra *
No resale inventory. Total units: 269.
The Infinity *
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units: 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
Two 1-bedroom and One 2-bedroom. Available units: 2. Total units overall: 376.
* New inventory still available from the developer.
Expect these numbers to swell like the crowds at Dolores Park as the fall selling season kicks off after Labor Day.
For more detail and guidance on the Downtown market whether you are a buyer or a seller, contact me.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Bored Buyers Bemoan Banal Buildings; Brace for Beacons of Bravado.
I've been working with a fabulous client, lets call her Gigi. Gigi has lived all over the world and has a healthy budget (1Million give or take) and a desire to live Downtown. We've seen everything from One Rincon Hill to The Ritz Carlton and back again and her feedback has been consistent: Nice buildings, great locations, but is there anything "new" ? What she means by new is New; fresh to the market, still rising, a dream unfulfilled but reaching for the heavens. I get where she's coming from.
Three years ago when the real estate market was zooming ever higher and multiple developments were rising Downtown and more planned, there was a sense of optimism and excitement. The City was changing, empty lots were filling in and a whole new way of living in Downtown San Francisco was quickly becoming the way to live in San Francisco. We all know what happened shortly thereafter; cancelled projects, delayed second phases and a skyline left in limbo.
Like a rainbow after a thunderstorm, I have good news. There is a new tower rising at Howard and Hawthorne that will add some much needed new blood. One Hawthorne has topped off at 24 stories and its facade is almost complete. Its a fine looking edifice, offering not only the promise of a fresh option Downtown but a return to a sense of progress and change. You might compare it to shopping at your favorite clothing store: You visit week after week, searching for a new look and ending up seeing the same old stuff. Well Downtown condo shoppers, that is about to change.
It can't come too soon for Gigi. Her insatiable thirst for high-rise living has caused her to rent a beautiful new condominium Downtown until One Hawthorne is ready for occupancy. Cheers, Gigi !
If you would like to be put on the priority interest list for One Hawthorne make certain to let me know.
Three years ago when the real estate market was zooming ever higher and multiple developments were rising Downtown and more planned, there was a sense of optimism and excitement. The City was changing, empty lots were filling in and a whole new way of living in Downtown San Francisco was quickly becoming the way to live in San Francisco. We all know what happened shortly thereafter; cancelled projects, delayed second phases and a skyline left in limbo.
Like a rainbow after a thunderstorm, I have good news. There is a new tower rising at Howard and Hawthorne that will add some much needed new blood. One Hawthorne has topped off at 24 stories and its facade is almost complete. Its a fine looking edifice, offering not only the promise of a fresh option Downtown but a return to a sense of progress and change. You might compare it to shopping at your favorite clothing store: You visit week after week, searching for a new look and ending up seeing the same old stuff. Well Downtown condo shoppers, that is about to change.
It can't come too soon for Gigi. Her insatiable thirst for high-rise living has caused her to rent a beautiful new condominium Downtown until One Hawthorne is ready for occupancy. Cheers, Gigi !
If you would like to be put on the priority interest list for One Hawthorne make certain to let me know.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Downtown Inventory Sampler
It's been a few months since we took a snap shot of resale inventory at the selected developments below. The most interesting thing to note this time around is that the numbers are almost identical to the last time. To quote Depeche Mode, did the market "Get the balance right" ? Or are we in for a "Black Celebration"? Whatever the case may be, homes priced for the current market are selling, albeit with longer marketing times.
If you have questions about the value of your home or are looking for a "New Life" in a Downtown condominium, let me know.
No more 80's Depeche Mode references (in this article), I promise.
The Beacon
Two studios, eight 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms
Total units available: 14. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Three 1-bedrooms and one 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 4. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
One 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 3. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
Three 1-bedrooms, FIve 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Total units available: 9. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
One 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 5. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
Two 1-bedrooms, One 3-bedroom. Total units available: 3. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra *
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Total units available: 2. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
One 1-bedrooms and One 2-bedroom. Total resale units available: 2. Total units overall: 376.
If you have questions about the value of your home or are looking for a "New Life" in a Downtown condominium, let me know.
No more 80's Depeche Mode references (in this article), I promise.
The Beacon
Two studios, eight 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms
Total units available: 14. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Three 1-bedrooms and one 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 4. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
One 1-bedroom, two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 3. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
Three 1-bedrooms, FIve 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Total units available: 9. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
One 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 5. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
Two 1-bedrooms, One 3-bedroom. Total units available: 3. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra *
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity
One 1-bedroom, one 2-bedroom. Total units available: 2. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
One 1-bedrooms and One 2-bedroom. Total resale units available: 2. Total units overall: 376.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Infinity Tower II almost 50% sold in 5 months. Hmmmmmm...
Through a combination of pent-up demand, attractive interest rates and significant seller discounts, The Infinity Tower II has approximately 140 out of 285 units currently in contract or closed since sales began in early February.
This astounding number of sales is not so surprising when you look at the fundamentals of the Downtown market. Achieving a great price in this environment is still possible, you just need to know the music so you can dance along and always keep your eye on the goal.
1.) Competition ? What competition ?
For those that want new, high rise and downtown, there are four choices: BLU, Millennium, One RIncon and Infinity. All are very nice buildings. Out of these four The Infinity seems to have the combination of amenities, views, location and value that are driving sales numbers that I didn't see in new construction even at the height of the bubble.
2.) V is for Value.
In an uncertain market it takes a compelling argument for buyers to pony-up the dough. That, and a motivated seller. Although buyers and their agents must sign confidentiality agreements regarding the details of their contracts, I can say that the discounts being offered at most sales offices right now are dramatic but not fire sale.
This may sound lame but it bears repeating: This is San Francisco. Buyers need to go through several rounds of offers before striking a deal.
3.) Reality Bites.
Sometimes buyers judgement gets a little cloudy which is no surprise given the emotional nature of purchasing a home. The most important thing to remember during negotiations is to keep your cool and try to put yourself in the seller' shoes. Even though they may be a faceless, corporate behemoth you are still working with a human. One that most likely has to report to another human. That, and this development is his or her baby. When you submit a low-ball offer don't be surprised with a high counter. You've just started to dance so don't get discouraged or angry, hang in there.
If The Infinity can keep it's current weekly absorption numbers going, they will be sold out by the end of the year. I don't think that's their goal, though. At half sold they have achieved an enviable velocity that can be slowed, if they so desire, to try to achieve higher prices on their remaining inventory. That may seem foolish given continuing economic uncertainty but don't believe you know what the seller is thinking.
Ask me and I'll tell you.
This astounding number of sales is not so surprising when you look at the fundamentals of the Downtown market. Achieving a great price in this environment is still possible, you just need to know the music so you can dance along and always keep your eye on the goal.
1.) Competition ? What competition ?
For those that want new, high rise and downtown, there are four choices: BLU, Millennium, One RIncon and Infinity. All are very nice buildings. Out of these four The Infinity seems to have the combination of amenities, views, location and value that are driving sales numbers that I didn't see in new construction even at the height of the bubble.
2.) V is for Value.
In an uncertain market it takes a compelling argument for buyers to pony-up the dough. That, and a motivated seller. Although buyers and their agents must sign confidentiality agreements regarding the details of their contracts, I can say that the discounts being offered at most sales offices right now are dramatic but not fire sale.
This may sound lame but it bears repeating: This is San Francisco. Buyers need to go through several rounds of offers before striking a deal.
3.) Reality Bites.
Sometimes buyers judgement gets a little cloudy which is no surprise given the emotional nature of purchasing a home. The most important thing to remember during negotiations is to keep your cool and try to put yourself in the seller' shoes. Even though they may be a faceless, corporate behemoth you are still working with a human. One that most likely has to report to another human. That, and this development is his or her baby. When you submit a low-ball offer don't be surprised with a high counter. You've just started to dance so don't get discouraged or angry, hang in there.
If The Infinity can keep it's current weekly absorption numbers going, they will be sold out by the end of the year. I don't think that's their goal, though. At half sold they have achieved an enviable velocity that can be slowed, if they so desire, to try to achieve higher prices on their remaining inventory. That may seem foolish given continuing economic uncertainty but don't believe you know what the seller is thinking.
Ask me and I'll tell you.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
"Thank you for calling Future Downtown Residential High Rises, please hold."
The last two weeks welcomed the first closings at both Millennium Tower and Infinity Tower II with BLU on schedule for May. As these lucky homeowners move in they are probably unaware that they are the first wave of the last batch of new residents we will see Downtown for what could be a decade. These buildings represent the last of the "boom" developments to be completed and open their doors. This however, was not always the case.
It was only a few years ago that developers had been planning three more large-scale condominium towers that would already have broken ground and have sales offices open at this time. All of these projects have been either shelved until further notice, put up for sale or both. The absence of these towers has made an undeniable impact; not only on the skyline but in the downtown residential inventory pipeline.
A brief rundown of the history and status of what could have been:
Turnberry announced last November that they had sold a 50% equity stake in their proposed 40 story tower at First & Harrison. Ground breaking had been scheduled for March of '09. With spring weeds rising on the empty lot instead of concrete and steel the joint ownership is shopping the entitled development to potential buyers.
Across the street at One Rincon Hill; the 50 story Tower Two remains on indefinite hold. The development team announced last week that they are still just 70% sold after nearly three years of marketing. The ghost of Tower Two is still very much part of the logo and marketing collateral for the development. With the first tower standing alone atop Rincon Hill it seems like one half of a broken heart pendant; waiting to be reunited with its lost love.
Traveling one block further east to Harrison and Fremont we encounter more weeds where The Californian should be rising. Developer Fifield's 393 units have been actively shopped for two and a half years with a suitor yet to be found.
One could interpret this as evidence of continued weakness in the San Francisco condominium market, but I disagree. These three developments would have added just over 1,000 units of new construction inventory Downtown. Without the competition and specter of over supply, Downtown developments are doing just fine (albeit with the implementation of significant price adjustments).
Don't cry for the towers that are still just a twinkle in their developers eye. One Hawthorne is proudly representing for them as it rises at the corner of Howard and Hawthorne. The timing for the 24 story165 unit development might be just right.
It was only a few years ago that developers had been planning three more large-scale condominium towers that would already have broken ground and have sales offices open at this time. All of these projects have been either shelved until further notice, put up for sale or both. The absence of these towers has made an undeniable impact; not only on the skyline but in the downtown residential inventory pipeline.
A brief rundown of the history and status of what could have been:
Turnberry announced last November that they had sold a 50% equity stake in their proposed 40 story tower at First & Harrison. Ground breaking had been scheduled for March of '09. With spring weeds rising on the empty lot instead of concrete and steel the joint ownership is shopping the entitled development to potential buyers.
Across the street at One Rincon Hill; the 50 story Tower Two remains on indefinite hold. The development team announced last week that they are still just 70% sold after nearly three years of marketing. The ghost of Tower Two is still very much part of the logo and marketing collateral for the development. With the first tower standing alone atop Rincon Hill it seems like one half of a broken heart pendant; waiting to be reunited with its lost love.
Traveling one block further east to Harrison and Fremont we encounter more weeds where The Californian should be rising. Developer Fifield's 393 units have been actively shopped for two and a half years with a suitor yet to be found.
One could interpret this as evidence of continued weakness in the San Francisco condominium market, but I disagree. These three developments would have added just over 1,000 units of new construction inventory Downtown. Without the competition and specter of over supply, Downtown developments are doing just fine (albeit with the implementation of significant price adjustments).
Don't cry for the towers that are still just a twinkle in their developers eye. One Hawthorne is proudly representing for them as it rises at the corner of Howard and Hawthorne. The timing for the 24 story165 unit development might be just right.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
The Curious Case of The Downtown Real Estate Market
Okay people, I've got some numbers for you this week. They don't have anything to do with reverse aging. My apologies about the headline.
I was conducting searches on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) and thought I'd run a little test since the market has seemed much more active in the past few weeks both for me and my colleagues. I searched Mission Bay, Potrero, SOMA and South Beach only. The following numbers track activity from March 1, 2009 through April 6, 200
Closed Sales: 21
Pending/contingent Sales: 48
Remaining Available Listings: 176
During this 37 day period, 69 property owners found themselves with buyers. Not all of these transactions have consummated but that's still healthy activity. What these numbers don't include are most new construction transactions. I would estimate that would add another 50 sales. Those deals would be spread among The Infinity, One Rincon Hill, BLU, and Arterra.
Given these numbers, reports about the death of the Downtown San Francisco real estate market are exaggerated. Prices are down. People are out there buying condominiums.
Spring fever? Crazy contrarians? Pent-up demand? Have we hit the bottom?
I'm just happy to be getting my clients the best possible terms on Downtown condominiums. Let me help you, your friends and colleagues do the same.
I was conducting searches on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) and thought I'd run a little test since the market has seemed much more active in the past few weeks both for me and my colleagues. I searched Mission Bay, Potrero, SOMA and South Beach only. The following numbers track activity from March 1, 2009 through April 6, 200
Closed Sales:
Pending/contingent Sales: 48
Remaining Available Listings: 176
During this 37 day period, 69 property owners found themselves with buyers. Not all of these transactions have consummated but that's still healthy activity. What these numbers don't include are most new construction transactions. I would estimate that would add another 50 sales. Those deals would be spread among The Infinity, One Rincon Hill, BLU, and Arterra.
Given these numbers, reports about the death of the Downtown San Francisco real estate market are exaggerated. Prices are down. People are out there buying condominiums.
Spring fever? Crazy contrarians? Pent-up demand? Have we hit the bottom?
I'm just happy to be getting my clients the best possible terms on Downtown condominiums. Let me help you, your friends and colleagues do the same.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
More Postcards from the Edge: A brief snapshot of current resale activity at 10 Downtown developments.
One month ago (February 2nd) we took a look at some cold, hard numbers. I chose ten new or newer condominium developments and pulled statistics from the MLS that communicate some very basic data on each building: How many resale units are for sale, what type of home it is (studio, one, two or three bedroom) and how many units are in the building overall? More than a few readers told me that they appreciated this not very scientific survey so I thought it might be interesting to see what difference (if any) one month has made. As I did last time, I kept any pricing analysis out of it because I believe that the aforementioned criteria tell their own story. An asterisk after the building name denotes that new inventory is still available through the sales office.
In a nutshell: small increases in inventory at roughly half the communities surveyed. No discernible trends thus far although it will be interesting to see what the spring resale market looks like. Keep in mind that the first batch of Infinity Tower I closings have also hit the one-year resale prohibition expiration.
If you have any questions about these numbers or would like more detailed information about current inventory and pricing do not hesitate to contact me. Without further ado, The Numbers:
The Beacon
Three studios, eight 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms
Total units available: 15. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Six 1-bedrooms and five 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 11. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
Four 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 5. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
Three 1-bedrooms, three 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Total units available: 7. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
Two 1-bedrooms, six 2-bedrooms and two 3-bedrooms.
Total units available: 10. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
No resale units. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes *
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra *
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity *
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
Four 1-bedrooms and five 2-bedrooms.
Total resale units available: 9. Total units overall: 376.
In a nutshell: small increases in inventory at roughly half the communities surveyed. No discernible trends thus far although it will be interesting to see what the spring resale market looks like. Keep in mind that the first batch of Infinity Tower I closings have also hit the one-year resale prohibition expiration.
If you have any questions about these numbers or would like more detailed information about current inventory and pricing do not hesitate to contact me. Without further ado, The Numbers:
The Beacon
Three studios, eight 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms
Total units available: 15. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Six 1-bedrooms and five 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 11. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
Four 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 5. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
Three 1-bedrooms, three 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom. Total units available: 7. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
Two 1-bedrooms, six 2-bedrooms and two 3-bedrooms.
Total units available: 10. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
No resale units. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes *
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra *
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity *
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill *
Four 1-bedrooms and five 2-bedrooms.
Total resale units available: 9. Total units overall: 376.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Postcards from the edge: A brief snapshot of current resale activity at ten Downtown developments.
We are taking a brief hiatus from the witty commentary and opinion you usually find here and are going to look at some cold, hard numbers. I chose ten new or newer condominium developments and pulled statistics from the MLS that communicate some very basic data on each building: How many resale units are for sale, what type of home it is (studio, one, two or three bedroom) and how many units are in the building overall? It's not a terribly scientific survey and I kept any pricing analysis out of it because I believe that the aforementioned criteria tell their own story. An asterisk after the building name denotes that new inventory is still available through the sales office.
If you have any questions about these numbers or would like more detailed information about current inventory and pricing please do not hesitate to contact me. Without further ado, The Numbers:
The Beacon
Two studios, five 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 12. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Five 1-bedrooms and two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 7. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
Five 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 6. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
Two 1-bedrooms, six 2-bedrooms and two 3-bedrooms.
Total units available: 10. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes*
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra*
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity*
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill*
One 1-bedroom and three 2-bedrooms.
Total resale units available: 4. Total units overall: 376.
If you have any questions about these numbers or would like more detailed information about current inventory and pricing please do not hesitate to contact me. Without further ado, The Numbers:
The Beacon
Two studios, five 1-bedrooms, four 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 12. Total units overall: 595.
The Metropolitan
Five 1-bedrooms and two 2-bedrooms.
Total units available: 7. Total units overall: 342.
Watermark
Five 2-bedrooms and one 3-bedroom.
Total units available: 6. Total overall: 136.
200 Brannan
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 191.
The Brannan
Two 1-bedrooms, six 2-bedrooms and two 3-bedrooms.
Total units available: 10. Total units overall: 339.
The Potrero
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall: 155.
The Hayes*
No resale units. Total units overall: 128.
Arterra*
No resale units. Total units overall: 269.
The Infinity*
One 2-bedroom. Total units available: 1. Total units overall 364 (excluding Tower II).
One Rincon Hill*
One 1-bedroom and three 2-bedrooms.
Total resale units available: 4. Total units overall: 376.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Turnberry goes Dutch with Rincon Hill tower; pass the test and you should consider living there.
originally published 11/11/08
The sale to a Miami-based investor should come as happy news amidst the relative gloom we've experienced Downtown. With excavation expected to begin in the first quarter of 2009, Turnberry and One Hawthorne will be the only "shovels-in-the-dirt" high rise residential projects in San Francisco. Will these buildings come on line just in time for the return of strong demand for condos Downtown ? Consult your oracle of choice...
Speaking of oracle's, my colleagues and I came up with a quick and fun way to determine if Downtown living is right for you (assuming you haven't already made this decision which I know some of you have). It's called the Herth Downtown Ten Point Lifestyle Test. If you answer 8 or more of the 10 questions in the affirmative, then you should include downtown properties in your new home search.
Herth Downtown's Ten Point Lifestyle Test:
1. Does condominium living appeal to you ?
2. Would you consider living in a Mid or High Rise development ?
3. Are you considering living in or near the city center?
4. Does new or recent construction interest you?
5. Would you like to live near your business, work or public transit yet not have to drive?
6. Are on-site amenities such as a doorman, concierge services, or fitness facilities important to you?
7. Would you like to live near your daily destinations such as grocery stores, retailers, or restaurants?
8. Is being close to cultural venues such as museums, live music, art galleries or theaters attractive ?
9. Are you interested in a low-maintenance "lock & leave" residence?
10. Is a wide price range and comparative value a priority ?
I hope that was fun and informative. If you are still on the fence, I can help you decide whether or not Downtown is right for you. If you now know that Downtown living is your thing, you can determine which developments will suit you best by contacting me.
I know of two that will be forming interest lists soon...
Elections & Downtown non-erections: Developers bearish on short-term outlook while agents hope post-election relief will get buyers back in the swing
originally published 11/4/08
Some examples: The Hayes has a fifth floor studio with balcony listed in the mid 300's and a tower-level 1-bedroom at Arterra in Mission Bay was re-priced in the low 500's. Over on Van Ness Avenue, Symphony Towers has a 1-bedroom on offer in the mid-400's. These prices represent reductions of at least $100,000 from their previous highs and what's more compelling is they seem to work. Erin over at Symphony told me they sold 6 units last week after the price drop.
Reductions in inventory and markdowns on stock indicate that developers are retooling strategy for what they see as a prolonged slowing of demand and it seems like if the price is right one can still sell a condominium even in these uncertain times.
The return of confidence to the country and San Francisco will go a long way in allowing home buyers to feel good about getting back in the market. With the impending change in leadership and recent condominium price adjustments this may be a historic moment in more ways than one.
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